Bang on schedule, the warmest air of summer so far is lifting north out of Africa right on the nose of the warmest time of the calendar year.

The combination of low pressure west of Ireland and high pressure over Germany sets the stage but it’s waves of energy riding the boundary in between that will help pick up the very warmest air currently over Spain where it reached 41C yesterday and force it north both up over the UK as well as the Western flank of mainland Europe.

System 1 is currently crossing Scotland. High pressure follows bringing a warmer, drier day tomorrow but it’s the second wave or disturbance that brings the real heat northward Thursday-Friday.

Here’s the initial GFS surface chart for today showing that system crossing Northern Britain.

Here’s the 500mb chart.

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The surface chart at 24 hours or early Thursday shows the system clearing into the Norwegian Sea with ridging settling in behind helping clear things out and warm up.

Look for a drier,. brighter and warmer day across the board tomorrow. SE England being closer to the ridge centre will heat to between 26 and 27 today, 28 to 30 tomorrow.

500mb chart at temps by 36 hours shows the heat surge or spanish plume progressing north AROUND the next approaching low. It’s that feature will drives the heat as well as the humidity north. Look for 25 or 26C even across parts of Scotland Thursday!

The surface chart by Friday shows a compact but potentially very active low pressure approaching the Celtic Sea. This will not just drive the very warmest air of the year into the UK but will spark trouble later Friday into Saturday.

500mb chart/temps by 72 hrs.

While hot over eastern England, very warm over Scotland, a swath of heavy, torrential rain is likely to spread north and east during Friday afternoon. Ahead of this nasty weather will be major warmth. Parts of the central Highlands may see 26 or 27C, eastern England 31 to 33C but drive a front into this steam bath and you’ve got the potential for some very lively thunderstorms packing large hail, funnels and extremely heavy rain which could trigger local flash flooding.

Surface at 54 hrs.

Check out the ribbon of intense rainfall that heading northward out of central France at 72 hrs.

Just look at the CAPE values Friday afternoon over France and the UK as the front becomes very active indeed as it collides with the hot, humid air built up ahead of it…

By 72 hrs, the 500mb chart shows the core of heat and ridge shift into western and central mainland Europe. We could see 34 to 37C over eastern Belgium, Netherlands into Germany Friday if not Saturday.

Low pressure and cooler air will be felt over the weekend across Ireland and the UK while the continent bakes.

The GFS as of now anyway, brings a near repeat early to mid next week.

96 hrs

144 hrs

168 hrs

192 hrs

See today’s video for discussion.

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