Although showing you in yesterday’s video the reasons why I don’t believe this summer will be a washout over the UK, this week appears to be pretty wet indeed.

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The reason why we see chilly easterlies and a lot of rain pushing west is because of a large building high over Scandinavia that will act as a wheel, with the lowest heights in a west-east alignment across central Europe and a clash between cool and some warm, humid air, we see an active front will be generate the heavy ribbon of rain that spreads south out of eastern Scandinavia down into Russia then nearly due west through Poland, Germany, the Low Countries into the UK.

This is clearly seen in the 70day QPF rainfall chart below.

Here’s the latest ECMWF surface charts through the next 48 hours.

A lot of rain is expected with local flooding, not just for the south and eastern British Isles but across a good chunk of central and western Europe as stated above. The areas which have been driest in recent months, N Germany up into Scandinavia, remains dry with high pressure in control. It’s areas that lie beneath the ribbon of moisture that’s riding around that high that will see a rather different week to those under high pressure.

Improvement comes late this week into the weekend as the high builds into the UK.

The GFS meteogram day 1-8 shows the downward trend early and mid week as the hose of moisture spreads west then is followed by drier, brighter and warmer weather to end the week.

No real change in 9-15 day.

GFS ensemble 7-day mean 2-metre temperature anomalies.

0-7

7-14

Check out the temperature anomalies from the past week. Note Russia and eastern Scandinavia!! 9C above normal over an entire week…

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