Apologies for the very late post. My internet keeps going down but appears to be up at the moment. Will make this brief as I don’t know how long this will hold.

As of this writing, we have plenty of wet, windy conditions affecting the UK with low pressure to our west drawing energy north.

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Over the next 36 hours, low pressure sinks south, replaced by a cold high that’ll settle south out of Scandinavia. Rather than the 16 to 20C yesterday, tomorrow will be distinctly cooler over the Northern and central UK but the good news is, we’ll see the return of sunshine.

As for tonight and tomorrow, heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms will affect many areas as colder air meets warmer air. Low pressure will act as the trigger.

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart

The model shows elevated CAPE values through tomorrow as conditions become right for what could be stormy in places tomorrow as surface heating interacts with the southward plunge of colder air at 850 to 500mb.

Note the high CAPE over parts of Europe, suggesting the rather buoyant, unstable atmosphere widely across the continent.

Here’s a close up of the UK.

Note the cool down at 850mb over the UK between 6 and 36 hrs.

6 hrs

60 hrs

Most of Northern England and Scotland will stay below 10C Friday with temps holding in mid to upper single digits even tomorrow afternoon as skies clear and the colder air begins to push south.

Friday pm temps.

ECMWF is a little more conservative on Saturday morning temps but GFS stands strong on below freezing for many which I agree with. Cold air in place along with clear, calm conditions is perfect with 2 or 3C in town and city centres, 0 to -2C in outlying areas with -4 to -6C in the coldest spots.

ECMWF by early Saturday already shows the cold and trough shifting east bringing cold conditions to Denmark, the Low Countries, Germany and primarily Scandinavia while the Azores high pressure builds into the UK during the second half of the weekend into early next week. More wet, windy and unseasonably cool conditions will impact Italy, Balkans and central Med.

72 hrs

96 hrs

126 hrs

Looking out over the next 10 days, the ECMWF continues with the western ridge/eastern trough in the means.

0-7 day

The following 7 day mean shows the same.

Will have a video along with write up tomorrow. Have a great night.

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