As highlighted over the last few days, we have a pretty wet upcoming 48 to 72 hour period as a corridor of heavy precipitation with sub-tropical origin funnels it’s way NE across Ireland and Scotland.

The below visible satellite image shows the mass of cloud creeping towards us. That’s likely to drop 1-2, maybe 3 inches of rain over Scotland’s western upslopes and could cause localised flooding.

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Here’s the setup according to the ECMWF tonight through tomorrow with the rain band squeezed between low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east. This corridor of rain will be accompanied by gales through the Irish Sea as well as along the coasts.

Once that front eventually clears, another low pushes into Ireland and the UK by Tuesday.

The unsettled theme continues through the upcoming week. Here comes the next wind and rain bearing front Wednesday.

Europe’s rain is focused on the western flank of the continent through the next 7 days. No surprise given the fact that high pressure remains dominant across most of the mainland.

Closer look at the UK. Heaviest rain in all of Europe is focused upon Scotland’s West Highlands.

Here’s a look at the GFS ensembles which show continued low heights extending from the Atlantic into the UK while positive heights hold strong over the central and eastern continent. That means little change in the short and medium range.

Upcoming 5 days off the GFS ensembles.

7 day 500mb height and temperature anomaly

Day 3-10

500mb height and temperature anomalies.

The day 3-10 period suggests stronger heights to the west out over the Atlantic while a trough holds firm over the UK. That setup could mean a trend towards colder as we depart February and enter March.

The GFS ensembles show a continued positive NAO which supports an Atlantic trough/Europe ridge over the next 14 days.

The CFSv2 4 week upper height anomalies show the continuation of the Atlantic flow into Western Europe through the first half of March but is hinting at more Atlantic troughiness and ridging near the UK in the second week of March. That could suggest more settled conditions with potentially milder air.

NOTE: TOMORROW IS MY BIRTHDAY AND WILL BE TAKING THE DAY OFF TO SPEND WITH MY WIFE AND DAUGHTER. WILL HAVE A NEW POST AGAIN MONDAY AM. THANKS FOR UNDERSTANDING!

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