Looks like things may be changing with the type of warming and shift going on up in the stratosphere. The relaxation of the Atlantic jet and the position linking of not only the N Greenland-Scandinavian high but the high building over the central Atlantic. See today Europe video for details!

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Up till now the jet has been too strong and as stated in yesterday’s post, we’re at that stage where the winter atmosphere is at it’s most mature and with the jet reaching it’s most southerly position and south of the UK, the cold that’s returning to the United States will cross the Atlantic bringing a cooler flow across Ireland and the UK. There’s a change that the building cold over Scandinavia may bleed southwest late next week as high pressure is seen by the models, to build between the UK and Greenland, which could turn winds NE.

However, this is NO true cold signal but a potential temporary cold shot. There’s considerable guidance suggesting that winter may well make an appearance by the end of the month and particularly February as the developing central Atlantic ridge could hook up with the developing N Greenland ridge and if that happens, the focus of negative goes to the UK and this would be a much more plausible ‘locked’ pattern. The importance of the central Atlantic to Greenland ridge linking, would essentially shut down the westerlies and so you cut off the mild flow and pull the air in from a much colder source region. Modelling suggests the base of the mean trough goes south into France or Iberia which means winds would be out of the N, NE or E over the UK. Northeast being coldest, keeping in mind that there’s less water to moderate the cold, the North Sea is colder than Atlantic anyway and the flow is coming from a snow covered land mass which reached the arctic.

Here’s those charts shown in the video.

700mb CFSv2 shows northern blocking, troughs over E US and W Europe.

2 metre temps (first time this model is showing blue for UK)

GFS ‘Blocking’ Outlook shows hooking up of the ridges with strongest negative heights developing over and south of the UK.

Day 1-4

Day 5-9

Day 10-14

Closer look at CFSv2 500mb height anomaly MEAN for February shows the central Atlantic and Greenland ridge joining.. This IF HAPPENS would be a cold signal for the UK (Denmark would be in fight between mild block/cold air, Michael!)

Once again I show you the current water temperature anomalies. Supportive of the blocking over the Pacific/Atlantic and Arctic.

ALL THEORY I admit but yet again, I am showing you the EVIDENCE to support this idea, not simply showing you each model run as they come in and wish casting a certain outcome.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Tags: arctic oscillation, cold, February forecast, north atlantic oscillation, polar stratosphere, snow, stratospheric warming, winter