We have endured one heck of a battering over the past 3-5 weeks with simply one storm after another and now, the land is struggling to cope with the amount of water. Unfortunately more nasty weather is looming night, tomorrow and through the weekend with more deep, sprawling lows sweeping more flooding rains and gales with damaging gusts along the coast.

The flood threat remains critical in many parts of the UK with rivers running extremely high in most areas and with an additional 1-3 inches likely in the next 72 to 120 hours, further flooding and rivers breeches are inevitable.

Tonight’s SW gales or severe gales with 70-80 mph winds will not only present a damaging wind threat but also a coastal flood threat. A coastal tidal surge, thanks to the combo of wind, battering waves and high tide presents a tidal surge threat which could cause coastal flooding.

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The Thames Barrier in London has been forced to close due to a rise in sea level ahead of the next deep low combined with high tides.

As the next sub-955mb low nears, so isobars tighten once again and the winds howl. Top gusts of 70 to 80 mph is expected along England’s Channel coast tonight.

Here’s the 12 hour surface chart off the GFS showing that next low approaching, bringing with it more heavy, wind driven rainfall.

Once that system pushes northeast over the UK, having likely worsened the flood situation for many, bringing down more trees and causing more misery, another ‘super deep’ low winds up and basically covers the majority of the North Atlantic by 72 hours (below).

Expect brief reprieve Saturday before the next batch of heavy rain and gales (severe gales along coasts).

It’s a VERY slow and painful process I know but the GFS shows a weakening of the low pressure cycle towards 168 hours or mid next week with hints of a colder pattern shaping up by mid month as shown with the ECMWF model in last night’s post.

Here’s the GFS surface chart out by 240 hours and note the stronger heights north of the UK.

Check out the much colder 850 temps for the same time.

348 hours

Between now and mid month, expect some back and forth in the modelling.

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Tags: Environment Agency, uk flooding, UK storms