We of course have the storm system that’s spinning over the Rockies just now with heavy snow breaking out in the Foothills and High Country to the west of Denver but it’s also the weather out ahead of the system that’s going to be particularly noteworthy in the next 48 hours as some very heavy rains will fall along and ahead of the frontal zone and SSW winds will really blow from the Lower Mississippi Valley up into the eastern Great Lakes.

It’s been a cold and in fact thee coldest morning both ahead and behind the front. Check out some of these lows in the Canadian Maritimes this morning in association with the trough that’s now lifting out.

Record Cold Start

It got below -10C (14F) over parts of Newfoundland for the first time this fall.

Yesterday morning saw record lows over parts of Ontario with a record low of -9.3C (15F) in Sudbury. The -3C (26F) at Toronto was in fact the coldest morning since April.

Here was a snow covered scene along I-70 at the Eisenhower Tunnel early this morning.

A snowy, icy I-70 at Vail Pass.

As well as the snow, cold, heavy rain and wind, there is a severe threat today and indeed tomorrow. Below is the 500mb upper chart off the GFS and you can see the fairly deep trough digging into New Mexico while this is forcing Gulf heat and moisture north into Texas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here’s the surface/precip chart by early Thursday morning and you can see the 1000mb low spinning over Oklahoma with a tremendous amount of moisture lifting up into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Some significant flooding is possible. It’s going to be rather mild, wet and very windy with a severe threat, particularly later afternoon into the evening hours.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here’s the slight risk area from the SPC.

By Friday notice the model has taken the low up into eastern Ontario and Quebec and it’s significantly deepened from 1000 to 978mb within 24 hours. That sort of deepening means big, perhaps non-thunderstorm damaging wind potential up into the northern Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There will be the SSW winds out ahead of the system where severe weather threatens and then there will be the much colder, potentially even stronger NW winds which once the low is up into Canada and NNE of the Lakes, could generate some big waves even sloshing.

Check out the forecasted wave heights in accordance to the GFS.

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The low continues deepening as it pushes up into Labrador, so expect WIDESPREAD strong and damaging winds from Toronto all the way up to Labrador City and through the Maritimes.

A chilly high builds over Ontario, the Great Lakes into the Northeast on the backside of the low so it’s a chilly weekend, especially up over Ontario and Quebec where there will be a hard freeze and likely the coldest morning’s yet.

Then here comes the next storm taking a similar path by entering the Pacific Northwest this weekend and it drops into the central, perhaps even southern Rockies later Monday into Tuesday.

This could be a storm which brings the first 2-4 inch snows to Metro Denver. Here’s the GFS snowfall through 144 hrs.

Closer look at Colorado and Rockies.

By late next week, the model has a corridor of very heavy, multi-inch rains up the Eastern Seaboard with a warm, moist flow. Note the deeper low driving into the Pacific Northwest. This looks to be the pattern shaping up for the month ahead.

My Official US Winter Forecast will be available Friday!

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