For those of you tired of warmth and wondering when fall will actually arrive, well it looks as though much of the East by next week will practically skip fall and go straight to winter with the trough and shot of cold coming down. In the last few posts I have showed you the big positive temperature departures the East has seen through the first half of this month but of course it’s been cold back west. Here’s a map showing you the departures.

What’s interesting is while it was a wild start with cold, snow in the West while summer continued in the East, we have the opposite ready to occur with the PNA finally switching positive while the NAO tanks to -2 values. With the AO negative too, the cold that drops into the Midwest and eventually spreads east, shouldn’t be underestimated. We could have a frost and 32 degrees all the way to Atlanta while accumulating snow occurs in Chicago with snow showers into NYC, Philly, maybe even DC.

This could be one of the more dramatic October turn arounds of the past 20+ years and even one of the biggest, strongest, near nationwide late October cold in many a year.

As for the NCEP temp means now through Oct 23, here’s how it’s looking.

Then the cold intensifies Oct 23 through 30.

That is some wild cold which could push snowfall way far south for this early in the fall. Snow and a hard freeze may make it into Texas with this pattern.

Let’s breakdown the next week or so and here’s those 850 temps this weekend. Cold shot No 1.

The initial shot doesn’t get too far south of the Great Lakes and models all but lift out the first trough but this is followed by a reinforcing second trough with much colder air and lower thicknesses.

Here’s you can see trough 1 lifting out, never really making it to the I-95 of the Northeast.

Here comes the second, much more penetrative push.

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Here’s what the surface looks like next Wed. Note the 528 height line goes south of Lake Superior while the 540 goes south of Philadelphia. That’s impressive for this time of year.

Don’t be surprised of Minneapolis stays below freezing while Chicago struggles to reach 32 also. Overnight lows may push 20, two or three times in the Windy City and according to Joe Bastardi, teens in Chicago have only been reported in October 4 times in Chicago.

Here’s the 500mb for next Wed.

Check out the CPC 6-10 day temps

8-14 day

While Wipha recurves over the western Pacific after hammering Japan, Francisco now sets it’s sights on the land of the rising sun. This system too will recurve and so while the NAO looks to trend more positive towards the later stages of the month, one would expect another trough and cold shot into the Midwest and East beyond next week’s, perhaps right after.

The ECMWF shows Francisco impacting Japan next Wednesday, so count roughly 6-10 days after and there should be another reinforcing cold shot into the Lower 48.

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Tags: Eastern US October cold, Midwest October cold blast on the way, October cold shot