The cold is well and truly in place across Scandinavia but while it eases in coming days across the North of the continent as ridging builds in, setting up a classic ‘Scandi block’, even colder air looks set to get drafted in from Asia into western Russia and perhaps into the Ukraine and SE Europe early next week. This air is more late November/early December-like than late September.

As for the western half of the continent, the ridge remains king, holding back any cold from drifting westward and although it may turn cooler with a trough dropping south from Greenland and Iceland, this trough doesn’t contain nearly as cold of air as the stuff driving out of Asia.

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Just how cold are we talking? The below GFS 5,000ft level temperatures show just how cold.

Note by Monday that the air mass grows colder over ENE Europe with -10C 850mb temperatures. This will hold daytime highs near or even below freezing with night temperatures plummeting to between -5 and -10C widely.

By next Wednesday the mild bubble or classic Scandinavian block is firmly in place but because of this, frigid air sitting over northern Siberia gets drawn west, southwest and it would not surprise me, if we get moisture involved, that we see the first accumulating snow in Moscow along with record cold. This is pretty exceptional for late September/early October. There are parts of NW Russia which could see lows of -10 to -20C.

Conditions warm some by late next week over NE Russia but notice how the cold gets driven into the SE corner of the continent. Don’t be surprised to hear of record cold and snow across the Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania later next week.

As for the UK and all of western Europe. Riding remains too strong and through early and mid next week we may see an impressive and wild temperature difference between London and Moscow. While London could see low 20s, Moscow may fail to even hit freezing a day or two mid next week with snow falling.

It is apparent that until waters cool and we see a progression of seasonal changes within the atmosphere, western Europe looks set to remain mild but as stated in yesterday’s post. Take heart if your a winter weather lover, take note of the kind of cold we’re already seeing push into eastern Europe. This shows potential for what can happen further down the road. After all, it’s only September!!

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