Through at least the first half of this week, the majority of the UK will be dealing with a mixture of low cloud, mist, fog, drizzle and for a select few, some sunshine.

Everywhere except the far north of Scotland is in a warm, sub-tropical air mass and with it stemming from a maritime source (Azores) there is unfortunately a lot of cloud cover. Fog typically thickens through the overnight period but temperatures are holding up and it is rather muggy with lows generally in the 13-16C range. Amazingly these overnight figures are a good 2-5C warmer than the highs most of us were experiencing around this time last week when our flow was coming out of the NNW. What a difference a change in wind direction makes.

We are sandwiched between two dominant areas of low pressure as you can see from the below charts. These two features are driving the warm, moist air north into the UK and just north of Scotland there is a dividing line between warm and cold. That boundary is expected to drop slowly south while the low to the SW of the UK pushes a front north and by mid to late week we should see the both front meet over northern England and Scotland bringing a spell of quite heavy rain.

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As for the low spinning over NE Europe, it’s drawing arctic air down over Scandinavia as explained in recent posts and I am expecting some significant cold to sweep down through Norway, Sweden, Finland through the Baltic States and into western Russia as the week progresses and yes, snow is likely, more so over higher elevations but with 5,000ft temperatures of -5 to -10C and cold NNE winds and a new low set to form near Iceland, ride over top of the UK ridge and drop into the cold NW flow, we could see a mid week spell of sleet and some heavy snow showers along with temperatures struggling to get much above 0 to 5C widely.

Below is the ECMWF surface/precipitation chart through this week and this gives you a general idea at the setup and how it evolves.

Mon (24 hrs)

Tue (48 hrs)

Wed (72 hrs)

Thu (96 hrs)

Fri (120 hrs)

While there appears to be very little movement in the Atlantic and eastern Europe lows, both systems are pushing fronts into the UK but the cold air is gaining ground but high pressure and relatively mild air will looks to stand firm over the UK, so it never really gets cold but turns cooler and wetter through the next half of the week. The core of cold that’s drop over Scandinavia never makes it into the UK thanks to the low to the SW and the ridge sandwiched in between.

How Chilly This Week?

Here’s the GFS 5,000ft temps Thursday!

Snow chart by 72 hrs!

By 120 hrs

Interestingly, by the time we get to the weekend, rains pep up over the UK as low pressure becomes more active between Iceland and Scotland. As heights lower over the North Atlantic and this builds east towards the UK, the ridge over the UK is forced to push up into Scandinavia and this could be a sign of things to come further down the road.

Keep in mind that as the cold gains more and more ground from Scandinavia to Russia, if the ridge builds north and becomes a cut off, one must watch the ‘built up cold’ sitting to the east and south of the high. Winds of course blow counter clockwise around highs and so it will be interesting to see whether the upper steering flow by around Oct 2 and 3rd tries to drag colder air across central Europe towards the UK.

Keep in the back of your mind the NAO signal and where it’s heading.

Temps Set To Plummet In Iceland

I happened to have a glance at the Iceland Met Office sight as of this writing and noticed temperatures are set to turn downright frigid late this week and by Saturday AM, based on the ECMWF model, temperatures in the eastern Highlands of Iceland are projected to drop to -13C or 9F as you can see from the below chart. Pretty incredible for late September. Keep in mind that Iceland set a new record low back in May when the temperature plunged to a bitter -21.7C or -7F.

Looking back, remember there was snow in the North at the close of August and more snow fell just last week, so it’s been rather cold of late across the island with inland temperatures at times struggling to get much above freezing with nights well below.

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Tags: Autumn forecast, Europe Autumn forecast 2013, iceland weather, Scandinavia weather