We are watching the activity and movement of the Western Pacific typhoons these days as they are basically telling us what kind of upper pattern the US can expect in the short and medium range. It’s an old rule of thumb that, often, but not always, that when we see a recurving typhoon, about a week later a trough drops into the eastern US.

About a week ago we were talking tropical storm Man-Yi which produced record rainfall and gusty winds in Japan. That system pushed NNE and we now have a trough driving chilly air into eastern Canada and the US.

Check out today’s ECMWF 500mb/850mb temp chart.

Snow is being reported in Ontario and we have temperatures in the 20s over parts of northern Ontario down into the Arrowhead of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin this morning. The cool, dry air continues heading south with parts of Texas enjoying the coolest weather since May.

As for this weekend and right now, we’re talking about Super Typhoon Usagi which became the strongest tropical cyclone globally of 2013 reaching peak winds of 160 mph. Thankfully this storm has significantly weakened but has still brought big winds and rain to areas of eastern China including the city of Hong Kong. The landfall occurred roughly 160 miles up the coast from Hong Kong sparing the city the worst.

Here’s a radar image capturing the eye crossing the coast.

What’s interesting about Usagi is that it’s path is quite different to that of Man-Yi as it did not recurve but headed west pretty much straight into China. With a trough to the east of the typhoon, this has the opposite effect 6-10 days from now over North America.

Here’s Usagi’s track.

Here’s the result we should have late next week into the weekend. Rather than a trough, we’ll see a ridge and the return of summer to the Midwest, Ohio Valley and depending upon an upper low, possibly the Northeast too.

Here’s the 6-10 day temperature anomalies correlating well with the effects of Usagi and the ridge pushing east over the US.

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While we deal with Usagi, there is another typhoon currently developing on it’s rear and this is another system worth watching. Interestingly the ECMWF winds this thing up, likely to a strong typhoon but may well stay below SUPER status as this system won’t cross the as warm of water as Usagi tracked across. The model recurves this system before reaching the super warm waters nearer to Taiwan and takes it rather close to the east coast of Japan by around 192 hours before it heads north towards the Korean Peninsula.

Here’s tropical storm 19W (Pabuk) probably within 50 miles of the Japan coast next Monday.

By Wednesday (Oct 2) the system has already recurved a couple of days earlier and speeding NNE and and significantly weakening as it does so.

The latest JTWC track for tropical storm 19W (Pabuk) showing an earlier recurve, keeping the storm well away from Japan.

This is well worth watching as it likely will lead to another eastern North America trough 6 days later.

Well, well well, look what the ECMWF shows 10 days from now.

What’s more interesting about this particular system is that it would correlate well with not only a trough but it coincides with a sharp dive in the NAO signal which the GFS ensemble has been projecting now for quite some time. The AO is also set to dive and so could this system in the west Pacific just be a small reinforcement to something much larger coming in early October? We could have a major pattern change coming and I do believe some significant autumn cold could be on the way for the Midwest and Eastern US, October 2-15th.

The recurve of typhoon Pabuk would fit in very nicely with the NAO/AO/PNA signal day 10 through 15 with a deepening eastern North America trough and with the AO going negative and pressures building over the arctic, the trough may come down with arctic air, something not seen yet..

The CFSv2 500mb heights show plenty of blocking over Canada week 3-4 with lower heights and colder temps underneath.

Here’s the week 3-4 temperatures.

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