Good evening and I hope all Americans enjoyed your Labor Day weekend. I’m sure for many or most of you, it’s back to business as usual. I posted just last night about the ‘potential’ implications later down the road to a more conducive tropical Atlantic, a better African wave train and the evolving pattern over North America.
While I stand by the North American pattern idea, I wonder with the regard to the tropics, are many of us simply clutching at straws with this season? By that I mean, just when you think, surely this can’t go on forever, the MJO is starting to look better, the wave train better.. then you see another huge batch of dust blow off the Sahara and appears to wrap around the various circulations embedded within the rather pathetic looking ITZC. The AEJ almost appears to have little to NO waves aboard and you then have to ask yourself, is this a season that’s ever going to get going?
What we are sure of tonight is the fact the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are going to get a lot of heavy rain, squally conditions over the next few days as the only real decent wave, and that’s about it, passes through en-route to the Turks and Caicos Islands and eventually the Bahamas. There is nothing that suggests this thing ever develops.
The 60 hr ECMWF shows the system crossing the islands bringing some messy vacation weather but it really just messes up outdoor plans, that’s about it.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Below is the 144 hr total rainfall off the model and you can see the amount of rain expected as this feature will be slow to push through.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
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As for the water vapour over the east Atlantic and western half of Africa. Nothing to write home about regarding the wave train but notice the dust drifting out of the Sahara.
I don’t see much of anything over the next 7 days and of course we’re approaching the date in which the latest ever hurricane developed. That was Sept 11, 2002. I recon that record may fall given the current setup.
The problem is, we cannot sleep on this as all of a sudden, perhaps out of nowhere, a system will develop and become a hurricane, could even threaten the US. It goes back to the same old saying.. it only takes one! History tells us, no matter what, a hurricane must develop at some point in time this season, the question is when, mid, perhaps late September? Or could this become the first season on record where NO hurricane developed? I doubt that very much.
Historically, we’re currently in the period of sharpest increase in activity and remember the historic ‘peak’ doesn’t come till Sept 15 so we’ve yet to get there.
Source: AccuWeather
As for the North America. The rest of this week will see cooling in the east of Canada and Lower 48 while it heats up over the Great Basin extending up into Northwest Canada.
Here’s the GFS ensemble temp departures Thu.
Quebec will turn very cool with flurries possible next week. The ECMWF has some snow over northern and central Quebec. It turns fresher into the Northeast US with the winds blowing from the northwest on the backside of a front.
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