It’s much more like mid summer than the early stages of autumn as temperatures soar into the mid-20s over Southern and Eastern parts of the UK, upper 20s over the western coastal plain of Europe. As a front approaches the UK from the northwest. Southwest winds will increase and so temperatures are expected to rise further tomorrow and peak Thursday at around 29 or 30C in and around London as well as Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam with 26C expected in Copenhagen.

The front is expected to advance southeast across the UK later Thursday into Friday and as it does so, expect rain to turn heavy with an increased flood risk. By Friday, temperatures may struggle to get much above 12 to 14C over much of Scotland and 20C over much of England and Wales as a trough sits overhead through the first half of the weekend.

A developing upper low will increase rainfall across Spain, Portugal, France and the southern UK. A classic Omega blocking high sets up this weekend and remains anchored through the first half of next week bringing messy weather to Iberia, France and the southern UK as well as eastern Europe. In between, beneath the high, it’s beautiful with lots of hot sunshine and temperatures running 5-10Cc above normal.

Below is the set up by Sunday and notice the shape of the upper pattern. Note the OMEGA BLOCK anchored between two upper lows either side.

Here’s another version.

Here’s the ECMWF surface/precip chart tomorrow right through till late next week.

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The model shows where the front should be positioned during Thursday afternoon. A relatively large temperature spread between the Northwest and Southeast.

Here are temps Thu PM according to the GFS.

Note the large area of 80+ or 27C over the Southeast.

Back to the ECMWF surface and by the time we get to Friday and the front sweeps through. Watch out for rains beefing up as they sweep through the Midlands and focus could be over the eastern half of England.

Here’s the broader picture. Look at much of Europe, yep it’s hot and sunny with readings a solid 5-10C above normal. Incidentally, once that front swings through England, highs Friday should be 10C cooler than Thursday!

By Saturday, the low I’ve been mentioning for days now, is now winding up pretty well off the SW coast. An arm of heavy rain looks to affect the southern and central Britain and Ireland during Saturday.

By early next week, the model pushes this thing further off to the southwest as it’s sniffing out STRENGTHENING HEIGHTS over Europe. Look out for the possibility of a resurge of heat back into the UK from the east.

Finally by Tuesday into Wednesday, it has the low and it’s mess lifting back north so the heat and more settled weather over central and northern areas ends!

 

Both NAO and AO continues to have a positive look through the first half of the month but a trend towards negative later in the period which may help encourage cooler air masses to come down perhaps from the 20th on.

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