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Collision of Atlantic air with hot, humid continent air means big rains take aim from northern Spain to Germany up into Scandinavia next 4-6 days. Major heat across the Mediterranean, central and eastern areas. No sign of any return of hot, settled weather for the UK and Ireland. Pattern is well and truly broken.
You mention that the warm oceans make it more challenging to make a forecast for the winter. How much influence do you think the warm ocean may have on the temperatures in the coming winter? I believe we will problably see more precipetation – especially in the beginning og winter untill the oceans cool down. But I have no idea how much influence the current warm oceans may have on the temperature. So I really look forward to see your winter forecast for Europe later on and to hear more about your opinion on this subject.