It’s going to be a messy week of transition as cold doesn’t want to let go. While Atlantic lows track across the southern half of Britain, swinging a shield of precip north, colder air will filter down from the north setting up a battle this week. It will stay chilly in the North while milder air tries to push up from the southwest.Not one but two fairly deep lows will sweep across the South this week bringing a spell of heavy rain which should make it up through the Midlands, while further north it’s less wet and feeling much cooler thanks to an easterly wind. That easterly wind will produce snow showers over eastern Scotland and northeast England during the first half of the week but it’s on the back side of the the 2nd low later Thursday which taps colder air and with moisture involved, don’t be surprised to see yet more significant snowfall over Scotland including the Central Belt. The snow could become disruptive once again over higher routes.

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In saying all that I am optimistic that things should settle down and hopefully warm some by the weekend.

Here’s a look at some surface pressure and precip charts for the week ahead.

36 hrs

48 hrs

90 hrs

102 hrs

Here’s the trouble, this is the upper chart off the ECMWF and notice the low to the SW and the confliction of air masses over the UK. Highs may push 12-14C in the South while it struggles to reach 2-3C in parts of the North.

Tues

Thur

As you know i’ve been monitoring next weekend closely in recent posts and the good news is that the ridge is back on the chart for next Sunday as I thought it may. Let’s hope it stays but with the transition between winter and summer along with the attempt in recovery of the NAO/AO back towards neutral, there is likely to be a continuation of the back and forth with the models.

Here’s next Sunday now.

Stay tuned, my UK/Europe Summer 2013 forecast is coming up this afternoon!!

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