High pressure stands firm over Scotland, which is ‘capping’ of the atmosphere bringing near cloud free skies, while positioned far enough to the north that England and Wales are under the cold, cloudy northeast flow around this high, the UK is very much split right now with heavy cloudy, drizzle and a cold breeze which is keeping England and Wales stuck at between 4-6C by day, 1-3C by night with barely any brightness for days.

Scotland and Northern Ireland is steeling all the sunshine. The cold, upper vortex we all endured during the second half of last week has been sinking south but high pressure in the upper levels has been building around this huge upper low into Scotland while a surface high builds from Norway down over Scotland. The fight between upper low and upper high has meant cold, dreary, cloud-filled northeast winds for the South.

The sun by day and clear skies and light winds by night within a very DRY airmass over Scotland is allowing a significant rise and fall in temperature. This is not uncommon at this time of year when the 850mb temperature is just about right. You need enough of a mild air mass overhead to allow strong surface warming but enough cold aloft above to then sink down to the surface at night.

The dry air heats and cools quicker than moist air which holds more heat by night and by day, a large proportion of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation rather than heating the ground and therefore air.

Temperatures are widely sinking at night to between 0 and -2C in towns but in sheltered areas temperatures are cooling to between -5 and -10C. As soon as the sun is up, the air rapidly warms thanks to the earlier sunrise and higher angle by day.

Lows tonight may dip to near -10C in the Highlands but like today, may well reach near 14C during the afternoon.

As for wind, any ‘mixing’, keeps heat from escaping but clear, calm conditions allows any daytime warmth to radiate back to space.

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So, England and Wales is seeing a mere 3-5C diurnal swing but under the perfect conditions of clear, calm and dry air with strong, late winter sun, there is a 10-15C temperature swing over interior Scotland between day and night. I find this time of year rather interesting when you get this type of set up.

Brighter Times Ahead For England, Wales, Less So For Scotland, NI

If you live in England or Wales, hang in there! Your fortunes are about to change during the second half of this week as the cold upper low sinks further south, weakening as it does so. This allows high pressure to build over all of the UK. In fact, while skies turn brighter with sunshine to end the week over England and Wales, a front sinks south over Scotland and this will introduce cloudier skies. Heights are too strong for this front to bring rain, except for perhaps light drizzle.

All in all I see barely any rain right through the week and weekend. As for next week, modelling continues to draw arctic air south but whether it dives directly south over the UK or to our east remaisn to be seen. I believe we will get a lot colder once again but whether it arrives early or late next week is unknown. Cold will return but as for appreciable rainfall and storminess, I see very little over the next 7-10 days. Let our dry spell continue!

Here’s the latest surface pressure charts off the GFS for the rest of this week.

18 hrs

48 hrs

72 hrs

96 hrs

The below upper level pressure charts off the ECMWF will show better how the high builds over the UK over the next couple of days and this UPPER ridge will clear out of skies across areas which have been plagued for a good week now. The cold northeast winds will shift south as it’s the upper low’s weakening which will allow the ridge to to build over UK airspace.

Don’t forget to watch the video below.

Today

24 hrs

48 hrs

72 hrs

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