The current winter pattern across the US has been particularly fierce this February with two historic blizzards slamming the southern plains just 4 days apart. The first storm which hit at the close of last week brought Wichita, Kansas their 2nd biggest snowstorm on record while Kansas City, MO endured their biggest in some 20 years, then came the next storm and it dumped an astonishing 19 inches of snow on Amarillo, TX while a uniform 10-20 inches fell across a large swath of the TX-OK Panhandles. 2-3 inch per hour snow rates driven by wind gusts as high as 75 mph at Amarillo International Airport and a nearby gust to 77 mph, this deemed every road across the region impassable, especially due to huge drifts piled 6-8 feet high.

While this second storm brought Amarillo it’s snowiest calender day on record, it was the 3rd biggest snowstorm on record with only March 25-26, 1934 with 20.6 inches and 26-27 with 20.2 inches edging the way. In Wichita, the two storms back to back has upped the months snow total to 21 inches. This makes February 2013 the snowiest of any month in city history.

Who Next?

As the storm continues northeast into the Lower Midwest, the moisture continues to stream up from the Gulf and Atlantic and hook into the cold air swirling around the low over the Midwest. A swath of 6-12, locally 18 inch snow totals will ultimately extend from the Texas Panhandle up through Oklahoma, Missouri and eventually central Illinois when this system finally weakens as it heads up into Canada. The heaviest snows have pushed through much of Illinois, Indiana and are now lifting north of Chicago and Detroit up into Wisconsin, Michigan and western New York tonight into Wednesday. As much as 6-8 inches is quite possible in the Chicago and Detroit metros with higher totals just north and west of these cities.

‘Banding’ will continue through much of tonight into Wednesday as waves of moisture continue to stream up from the southeast, entering the cold air in place.

The sizeable snow swath continues up across western PA and New York but by Wednesday morning, the models are sniffing out a secondary low developing off the Carolina coast just like we saw with the last system four days ago. The track of the secondary very much remains open given it hasn’t developed yet. Most modelling keeps in largely inland and so it’s rain for the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston but enough cold air keeps precipitation as snow inland over New England even extending down the spine of the Appalachains.

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Here’s the latest GFS snow projections for the next 48 hours.

Florida Freeze, Perhaps Even Snow??

Modelling is suggesting a strong southward plunge of cold air all the way into Florida late this upcoming weekend once this storm system clears. One should expect a frost and freeze across north, perhaps even central Florida with temps diving to near 32 degrees in and around Orlando.

There were hints by a couple of the models of some light FL Panhandle snow flurries. Time will tell as it’s too far out.

Here’s the latest GFS 850 temps for this Sunday and notice the 0C line all the way to Lake Okechobee, Florida!

Below is the ECMWF 850s for Sat and Sunday, just look at where that freezing line goes.. all the way out into the Gulf of Mexico. Check out the -10 to -15C line!. This would imply a hard and widespread frost and freeze through the South all the way to the coast as well as Florida this weekend.

96 hrs (Sat)

114 hrs (Sun)

126 hrs (Sun)

Next week will likely see yet another storm on the plains with plenty more cold in the mix. Spring is a long way off!
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