Yes, there is STILL no real signed deal on this weekend system. It is really quite the headache and with how little the midweek system impacted the Mid-Atlantic I am truely not buying into this storm if I’m being honest.

Around this time yesterday I guess I was ruling this thing out, then during the day today I was beginning to wonder but and at this stage in the evening, I cannot say this is going to be much of a deal other than bringing perhaps a few inches of snow from DC up to Boston. I could be wrong of course.

Check this out off the GFS by Sunday.

Now that is a rather pathetic amount of snow. I do understand how this is only the GFS and there are other models which say otherwise. The ECMWF, NAM, UKMET etc etc but I really do think that the energy sweeping down on the NW flow won’t catch the front and get either A) pulled north quick enough, to hook moisture back in across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast or B) there will be quick enough development. Like I say, I could be wrong, call it a hunch. I still think it’s going to be all about the cold air, not so much the snow.

Let’s look at the 500mb off the ECMWF.

Here’s Saturday

Although the trough is far enough back to the west which could argue a system could round the base of the trough and get back east, look at the orientation. It’s got a NEUTRAL if not positive tilt so anything which does manage to get round, simply sweeps straight into the open Atlantic rather than get caught and hooked in by a negatively tilted trough.

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Here’s Sunday.

Wow, now that’s what you call a trough. Plenty of arctic air coming down this weekend that’s for sure but look at the axis.. it’s neutral, not negative and the low which is seen by this model has a low with pressure of around 1001mb.

While this weekend’s system appears dud to me (hope I don’t need to eat my words on this), what may be coming straight after, may be anything but dud!

The GFS has a major snowstorm developing from the eastern Plains, through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast…

Check this beauty out!

Next Friday.

Later Friday

Now that’s what I call a snowstorm. Note the 8-15 inch swath stretching pretty solidly from eastern Nebraska all the way to the north burbs of New York City.. Let’s keep a close eye on this!

How about temperatures?

Here’s the US temperature anomalies for the next 8 days off the GFS. Plenty of cold coming in with this trough!

Following 8. I’ve showed you this pretty much every day. Notice it doesn’t back off the substantial cold!

So, what about the remainder of February and beginning of March?

CFSv2 Goes Wild With Cold Into March!

Next 10 days

5-15

15-20

That’s a few runs of this model that I’ve seen some tremendous cold take aim at the WEST and by March 10, ridging takes over the East, a hint of spring? Possibly.

Don’t let your guard down through the rest of February and if you live out West, looks like a cold first 15 days (at least) of March coming up!

Follow my weather updates on Twitter @MarkVogan

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