Over recent days, modeling has showed us the potential return of winter to the UK and quite possibly Ireland too from around next Wednesday onwards. The earlier indications have been there through the likely return of the negative AO and for, us.. most importantly, the NAO. Next week looks quite interesting with more oppertunity in seeing ‘disruptive snowfall’ and a stinging easterly wind.

In recent days I have also alluded to the threat of ‘bigger snowfalls’ as we are in the midst of winter’s mature phase. In other words, the atmosphere is in a deep winter state, the coverage of cold within the atmosphere is greatest at this stage in the year and with abnormally warm North Atlantic waters as well as the right pattern setup, February and March can bring significant snowfalls. This return to cold next week and the way the pattern is evolving my promote an increased threat for ‘bigger snowfalls’. This is more of making you aware rather than a forecast in which I see any imminent threat.

So, what can we expect over the next 5-10 days?

Enjoy this weekend’s bright, sunny and mild weather as it may be the last mild spell for a while again. Enjoy the nice mild conditions of today? Highs Saturday and Sunday should reach between 6-11C in Scotland and Northern Ireland, 10-12, maybe 13C across parts of England and or Wales as well as Ireland.

The ridge bringing us this very welcome spell of fine weather should take us into early next week but as we progress into the mid part of next week, expect the ridge to push north while building cold over Scandinavia begins to push west as winds around the high start blowing out of the east over the UK.

As it stands, from Wednesday onwards, expect winds to crank out of the east with daytime temperatures dropping away. Cold, frosty and icy nights will return and Thursday-Friday look to see highs struggling to make it above 1-3C yet again.

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Firstly, here’s the latest NAO ensemble.. it’s clear as to where it’s going and should stay through the remainder of February. The AO btw is also tanking which should keep plenty of cold air across the mid-latitudes. Always worth remembering that you can have as strong of an NAO as you want but without a negative AO and plenty of cold air up over the arctic, you won’t get all that cold here.. This -NAO/AO SHOULD keep the cold in place for at least 5-7 days but of course this winter has been very much dominated by PROGRESSION. While we’ve had plenty of cold shots with decent snow events quite frequently once we broke the back of the first part of winter, it has always came and went after about a week to 10 days.

What will be interesting is to see how cold this coming shot is and whether it holds for longer than our previous cold spells. Bare in mind that we’re now at mid-February and the sun is rising higher into the sky. Days are lengthening, nights shortening but that doesn’t mean we can’t get cold still. Some significant cold and especially snow records have been set between now and early to mid March. The reason for mentioning how cold and how long this upcoming cold willl be is that with a more mature wintertime atmosphere, this can change the equation. The atmosphere and SST’s are different compared to earlier in the season and that has impact.

Here’s the latest ECMWF charts for next week.

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

 

Friday

As for our snow chances and a look at surface charts, I will focus on that aspect tomorrow.

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