Haven’t looked at the Jamstec model in a while and thought i would put this up for you to see. Interesting to see it warm for much of Europe while the west and northwest remain colder than normal. This coincides nicely with my winter idea. The last time I looked at this, all of Europe was cold and I didn’t see that happening.

As for North America, earlier runs showed a blockbuster winter for most of the US with all practically all blue, then it showed cold for the west and central region while warm up the east coast, now it’s got to where I believe the cold and warmth will be. As you can see from the above map, it now has warm for the west and cold for the east.

As for precipitation in Europe, it shows wetter than normal over Scandinavia and SE Europe while it’s drier than normal for the UK east to Germany. The wetter than normal for parts of Iberia, the Med and SE Europe suggests an active, more southerly storm track while the blocking cold trough is to the north, re-routing the storm track further south.

Same for the US with a dry winter for the East, this is where the model sees the cold. What I disagree with is that the model has it dry for most of the country except for the Southeast up towards the Mid-Atlantic. The South, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic I agree should be wetter than normal but for all of the West? I think the PNW will be drier than a normal but the Southwest should be normal to above normal.

The Jamstec continues to show SST’s warmer than normal (associated with a weak Nino, borderline La Nina) over the central Pacific as well as the tripole of warm-cold-warm over the North Atlantic. All in all the Jamstec continues to favour a cold winter for NW Europe and Eastern North America with blocking over Greenland, like we saw in 2009-10 and during the first part of 2010-11.