I’m still working on a post regarding the stratosphere but while that’s being written up, I want to show you what the models are cooking for the beginning of December!

Check out the above GFS ensemble for 384 hours. Note the blocking high positioned over Greenland, this will deliver parcels of arctic air into both the US and UK at the start of December.

Check out the below 500mb height anomalies off the GFS ensembles between 48-384 hours. Notice how the model has the strong positive migrating from eastern Canada to Greenland… This will weaken the westerlies around the mid-latitudes but until then, expect a strong zonal flow over the next 2 weeks. By months end, things will get very interesting indeed.

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Here is the 850mb temps (5,000ft) off the GFS and ECMWF for North America.

GFS

360 hrs.

384

 

ECMWF

360 hrs

During the first week of Dec according to the ECMWF, while the first lobe of arctic air enters and exits the Northeast, a second, stronger wave of arctic air drops out of British Columbia into the Rockies and Plains and spreads east. Check this out for 408 hrs (Dec 2)

Here is the 850mb temps (5,000ft) off the GFS and ECMWF for Europe.

GFS

384 hrs

384

ECMWF 384 hrs

480.. Dec 5

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