We loose the warm, damp and dreary regime over the next 24 hours and will return to the much more typical, cooler, crisper weather we expect to see during November. The frontal boundary responsible for the mild flow and wet weather will sink south tomorrow, fragmenting as it does so and this will introduce cooler air from the north.

Although this setup is interesting with impressive mildness and temps hitting levels 5-10C above normal, the very fact that we have air with origins extending from deep within the tropical Atlantic is fascinating, however it’s what it’s telling us which is more important. In my autumn forecast first issued back in August, I highlighted the similarities with 2009 and this year. The similar players on the field including the weak Nino and global SST’s as well as the similarities to the summer and autumn pattern across the UK and Europe.

All these factors considered and through many hours of research, I came to the conclusion that this November may play out similar to November 2009 with a likely spike in the NAO and AO to positive. This has indeed occurred and we are seeing the period of mild, wet and dreary days I had foreseen since August. I believe we have yet to see a period of ‘storminess’ and next week may bring just that.
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Our current setup is very similar to the period we saw in November 2009 when a deep, subtropical moisture plume which originated in the subtropics extended all the way to Britain, it acted like a hosepipe. Having stalled for a solid 24 hours, it produced a record amount of rain with a foot falling on Seathwaite Farm, Cumbria. This current setup thankfully isn’t loaded as much with moisture, plus it is wobbling, so the distribution of rainfall is spread out more.

According to the models, while we begin to see the Europe ridge breakdown some, this opens the door to Atlantic lows tracking further south and closer, if not over Ireland and the UK. The GFS takes the first of two storms over the next 6-8 days across Ireland and the UK. The first low sweeps across Ireland Saturday night and across southern Scotland Sunday. This would bring a period of heavy, potentially flooding rains and strong to gale-force winds depending upon where you are and the storms track.

Following some respite later Monday and Tuesday, a second, much deeper low approaches Ireland later Thursday of next week with pressure down to 966 mb, The  GFS takes this north after pushing across Ireland but it would support widespread gales, potentially distructive winds, particularly across Ireland but perhaps across parts of the UK too.

 

This could be the stormy pattern I’ve alluded to in my overall November idea.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a slap of cold air with possibly some snow to go along with it, in the wake of the second system. Even the first low could bring a decent push of cold air in with it as it drags building cold off Greenland.

The first low appears to deepen as it exits the UK and so northerly backside winds could bring quite the chill with lowering snow levels.

More storminess may follow these systems but what excites me is that my November idea appears to have merit and so as this seems to be paying off, it makes me somewhat more confident or at least optimistic, that we have cold looming in the closing days of November and starting December. The question is just how cold and how long will it last once it gets here. I am becoming more and more concerned about significant disruption brought by heavy snow and major cold to follow.

Going by the latest ensembles and other models, the first 14 days of December could see a major period of winter weather, I want you to understand that.

I will post more on how the +NAO/AO is doing and what excitement we may have in store.

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