Photo courtesy of Daily Mail)
I GUESS THE GREAT STORM OF 1987 AND ONES BACK THROUGH THE 18, 17, 1600S & BEYOND WHICH BROUGHT THE WORST OF BRITAIN’S WEATHER IS ALL DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING? IF NOT, WHAT WAS THE CAUSE THEN?
It seems these days as though climate change or global warming can be blamed for pretty much everything and no explaination is needed. It sounds to me like a cop out for not having to delve into sound, makesense science. If you don’t know the logical reasoning behind what’s happening with the weather, well let’s blame global warming then.
Tell me this, how the heck can you blame Co2 driven global warming on ALL variables of the weather. Media headlines have gotten way out of hand each and every time weather which is perhaps a little more intense than normal, hits.
Hot, cold, wet or dry? There is, more often than not reasonable and logical explaination as to why a certain type of weather is happening and to me, it’s nonsense that melting ice over the Arctic is the reason for our soaking summer. I personally believe it’s several factors at work.
Warm AMO, Stronge/Longer High Latitude Blocking & Onset Of El Nino Is Likely Causes Of Excessive UK Rains
This Sea Surface Temp Anomaly map for the past 7 days off AccuWeather Pro shows where waters are warmer/colder than normal.Notice the warmer waters over the N Atl, Azores and Mediteranean, this feeds increased heat and moisture to the atmosphere above and with the pattern, all this energy gets transfered into lows pushing into the UK!
The persistency in our wet, gloomy weather is quite likely due to the persistently NEGATIVE North Atlantic Oscillation combined with the warm waters over the North Atlantic, the Azores and the onset of the El Nino following back to back La Ninas. Remember the persistently NEGATIVE NAO which helped us with the back to back cold spells in the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11, it was the persistently POSITIVE NAO last winter which kept us warm, wet and windy along with other factors. Joe Bastardi of WeatherBELL mentioned just this morning on his video about how negative the NAO has been and how although this has little bearing on the US summer pattern, it does however for Europe.
It’s my task, urge, mission to show you clear cut reasoning behind the whys of the weather. I want to learn more and teach you about the driving forces behind what goes on in our atmosphere. Anyone can say anything but I, like many of you want to know WHY without using the cop out, global warming is to blame for everything approach!
Notice the PERSISTENCE in the negative NAO as well as the depth in which it’s negative. You can see why June and so far, July has been so wet. The increase in rainfall can be put down to increased warmth pushing north which adds moisture to lows as they push across the UK. (Chart courtesy of NOAA)
Recent years has seen an increase in high-latitude blocking and there are a bunch of theories as to why. Big players in those theories incluse volcanic activity which we have seen an increase of across Iceland and Alaska. Powerful or long duration eruptions release various particles and gases high up into the stratosphere and at high latitude near or over the pole, this is said to increase blocking and stratospheric warming events which force cold south. The sunspot cycle which is low correlates well with global temperature and the multidecadal ocean cycles which greatly influences the global atmosphere above. The last 20-30 years has seen both Pacific and Atlantic warm and so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that the continents will warm too. What changes the equation is the fact that the Pacific has now returned to it’s cold phase but with the warmth remaining, for now at least over the Atlantic, this sets a fight and I personally believe that the reasoning behind the increase in wild weather globally is largely to do with the COOLING, not warming of our world. The natural 20-30 year warm spell is nearing an end and soon we’ll return to the 60s and 70s, worst case the late 1800s, early 1900s which was worse than the 1960s through 70s era. The pattern now is very similar in many ways to the 1950s.
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