>It excites me see my ideas that has been charged up since summer at the prospect to what could be a “severe winter” for the Eastern, mostly densely populated third of the US and Europe is starting to show signs of reality.

I and you must not overlook both the significance to last winters records that smashed in the cold across particularly the Midwest and Ohio Valley and what we have seen so far in the early stages of this winter both with Western Canada’s 45 to 50-BELOW NORMAL readings that hit just a few degrees away from ALL-TIME records and the fact that areas of California and Nevada have seen coldest in 10 to 20 years with even one if not more new ALL-TIME records broken, the INGREDIENTS are there i.e. we have the ingredients to bake the cake, all we need now is the pattern (oven) to cook up a perfect cake!

What happened back in October provided me with more reasoning to back what my forecast was already hinting at. I sais to myself, “if we can see Arctic air to this severity now in October, then when the heart of winter does kick in, we could be in for something far greater”. In my opinion, it’s all about reading ahead and watching for the early signs.

For me to base my forecast stratagy, it’s all about “I verses A”. Intensity of Arctic air verses, Availability of Arctic air, if the patterns of the upper atmosphere don’t marry together you don’t get the cold into areas you thought, so it’s important to remember all aspects. The intensifier is in the Arctic Oscillation sticking to negative mode for a month or so early on allows the cold to grow, intensify and spread out but in enough of a confined space that the air simply grows colder and colder, give it too much atmosphere and coverage, then the deep concentration to ferocious cold is spread out and therefore moderated due to greater area to fill. Allow this to build to say 45 to 55 below zero, then the flip over to a negative Arctic Oscillation and thus the Arctic air is released southwards away from it’s point of origin. However for key areas to tap into this Arctic air, we must then have the North Atlantic Oscillation come into the playing field, not only do we need to see a negative index and thus building a warm pool across the North Atlantic but it’s vital WHERE this warm pool sets up the block. To a classic Arctic injection into southeast North America including the major cities from Atlanta to Boston and Western Europe including the British Isles, we tend to want to see that blocking ridge set up right over Greenland, thus the troughs can then drop into these key regions as warmth is pumped north, the replaced of air is then shifted south on both sides of the ridge freezing the 2 out of 3 major industrial regions of the globe.

ALL SIGNS NOW POINT and with the intensity of the Western Canada Arctic cold pool which I have been really paying close attention to, is merging all the fine ingredients together. We want to see some good snows start to whiten more of the Eastern US which I believe is ready to happen and that will allow less moderation as this Arctic air drills southeast. Christmas and New Year mnay be one of the coldest in 10-15 years from Atlanta to Boston. I do see it possible of two scenarios. Either the ridge builds over the West by late month allowing a mild Christmasand New Year LA to Seattle on east to Salt Lake and Denver to Cheyenne or they too will have cold as then the whole country may be under the Arctic gun.

Now as Europe begins to shiver as winter tightens it’s grip, the British Isles as of this writing is mild across the north and cold to the south. Here at my house it’s in the low 40s. However we live in a place where it can be tough to shake off the Atlantic influence which always tries to moderate us. But if Europe is cold enough and we see a negative NAO with high pressure over Greenland, then it’s more than likely we will see the cold air vent off Europe and we get a taste of a more continental climate. What always becomes interesting is when you can an easterly flow and cold air over the UK, whilst Atlantic air crosses over us, that often results in snow breaking out as the moiture hits the colder air over us, that may be what is in our forecast between now and Christmas, IF and only IF we get snow across the majority of the UK and then a Siberian high out of northern Europe, we may see some of our coldest air since 2000.

Like i’ve stated in previous posts, it’s become harder to get snowfall in Britain since we have seen 30 years of a warm AMO thus yielding warmer winters, however as times appear to be changing and the fact that last winter displayed a substantially colder winter overall, it shows me that cold and snow can and still can happen.

The Atlantic is cooler than recent years, we have a pattern now shaping with the El Nino setup that favours cold here that tells me that we are still on target for a substantial period of cold WORSE than last winter. It wasn’t so much the numbers last year but more the persistency and longivity of cold spells that surprised me last year. This year we may see cold like we haven’t seen in a decade or possibly longer. The low solar cycle is a player that can’t be ignored like the fact that Edmonton experienced their coldest ever March reading earlier this year and now witnessed their coldest ever December reading. Bear in mind folks these numbers have been shattered by 10 or more degrees, that’s NOT normal and these records date back beyond significant cold periods globally.

I have indeed written more than I anticipated and now shall close off for the night. I shall blog in coming days with more ideas as to what to expect in the run up to Christmas Day…

1) Snow showers to frequently start whittening Britain.

2) With snow on the ground and colder air in place, could much of northern Britain from Midlands or Cumbria remain below freezing week of Christmas and Christmas Day?

3) The Eastern US from Appalachains to Atlantic coast may see one or two 2-4 4-6 inch snows in the week of Christmas with an Arctic high to follow, making for a frigid Christmas Day.

4) a warming trend to follow continued cold across Western US between Christmas and New Year, winters worst over for some.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark