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Sunset and above the fogshrouded central belt (from the top of the Campsie Fells)
Above the fog!
Frozen moisture buildup from the fog
Today’s high of 30 degrees, first day this season which remained under 32 degrees.
Due to a 15-hour work day yesterday in which I didn’t actually get my feet up till 7pm last night having been leaving the house at 3am for work, I eventually got my computer switched on only to find myself unable to go online which meant I could not blog, yes even after a 15 hour day I still wanted to blog and say something to you my reader…
Ok, my primary thought right this minute is OUR weather here in the British Isles… Yes, we have managed to shake off the misery of persistent unsettled weather that has been going on strong really sinbce our ever to brief warm spell that ended back at the commncement of July. Our weather is now dominated by a stable high pressure system, one that rolled in off the Atlantic is sitting over us now and nudging eastward which could make us believe wet, warm and unstable weather will return.. No it won’t (I believe) and what I hope will happen and what the models suggest now is that Europe (now cooling) is going to expand the cold pool and push the high back towards Greenland, which is the classic signal to a colder push of air now maturing so to speak over the continent. What we need to see for true cold here and not the mild version that we’re seeing now is to have cold expand across Europe and the high to push out over Greenland, then you get a strong trough to form over the UK and cold then has an open door to us.
We have gotten colder for sure. I have experienced our first sub-freezing day here in Lennoxtown and really across much of the country away from the coast. Areas which have been fogbound since Thursday, have remained fogbound nonstop and with that we have seen generally a levelling off to freezing point (30-32 degrees, 0 to -1C) at night as any warmth at the surface and the huge amount of moisture hanging in the air has stopped the cooling process and then up one or two degrees during the day. Areas outwith the fog have enjoyed a good deal of sunshine and slightly above freezing, those areas under clear skies but in the shade for the most part have remained frosty all day with reformation of moderate to severe frost during the clear, calm overnight hours. That process has remained and I believe will remain so give or take some cloud and rain the continued push to colder is likely over the next 5 to 10 days as weather moves in from the EAST off Europe (a colder, continental and Siberian source)…
Our close proximity to relatively warm waters will surpress our cooldown and we may see some days moderate in temperature when cloudiness rolls in but even at that I do believe we shall see a more Arctic origin airmass here before Christmas and cloud or no cloud we shall see below freezing and snowfall down to low levels. This thanks to a NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION which will be the key to a cold pattern here. How cold?
The cold spots of Scottish Highlands and Southern Uplands of the borders and Dumfries and Galloway as well as the Lake District of England may see -10C nights and highs well below freezing, that is until the snow hits and much of the country has a blanket of white, then we could easily run those numbers down by a good further 5 degrees. Here in the lowlands (central belt where much of the Scottish population live, we could IF snow falls and sticks and a colder Scandinavian ridge moves over us, highs remain into the -2 to -4C range and fall off to between -8C in inner city areas to -12C by night in outlying rural areas… Yes that is what I believe is possible in the week running up to Christmas Day! Could this fail to materialise? Yes, it could, we must remember, for the last 20 years, it has become tough to have snow fall and remain on the ground for more than 24 hours in in lowlands of Britain and the track record isn’t good.. However all the signs are there, and may I add, everything is basically running like I thought it would back in October, my ideas have been running through my mind since the summer.. I stated that by MID-DECEMBER Britain would start to become colder WHICH IT IS but we haven’t seen anything to what I believe is coming, my big test is fast approaching, we shall wait and see….
As for the US. We have just seen an Arctic air mass hit the West, now it’s the East that I wait the colder air to start driving in and if that NAO starts to pump a warm pool over Greenland, then it’s game on for cold both in the Eastern US and here in the UK. But that ridge must work it’s way across to Greenland, otherwise this forecast could be a bust!
Stay tuned!
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Email me at [email protected]
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