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Where would you rather be?

Today’s Forecast for Death Valley, California: Sunny, High 126, Low 95

Today’s Forecast for Minneapolis, Minnesota: Partly Sunny High 71, Low 55

Actually 71 isn’t bad today for Minneapolis compared to yesterday’s record cold “high” of 65 degrees under a low hanging drizzly cloud deck, bring a little wind into the mix and it felt like the upper 50s much of yesterday…. Sure that would be ok for October but not July 17!! My good friend Paul Douglas of WeatherNation made an interesting statement. He said in a weathercast yesterday “It feels like central Manitoba”. Sure, basically all the weather has shifted several hundred miles south these days. Minnesota’s weather is down in Tennessee where 84 was recorded at Memphis, that 84 would in fact be normal for Minneapolis! For a time of year when air masses are normally hot, sticky and easy to get warm has been stunningly cold. It is a major achievement to get high’s in the 60s across a huge swath of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes for mid-July. So why the cold? It is very tough to put down an exact reason behind this, but Canada has been abnormally chilly, in a normal year, this type of air hanging over the Twin Cities would be over the permafrost region closer to the Arctic Circle, not the US/Canada border where highs were in the 50s, nights dropping into the 40s. Recent summers have displayed remarkable warmth even way up across northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba into the Arctic regions. But it’s different this summer and I did fully anticipate cooler air this year that will struggle to get this far north in 2009 given the pattern of the past 2-3 years.

For me, I would look at why that cold of air is there in the first place.. My reason, is the type of winter across Canada, why the type of winter in Canada which was very cold and stretched into early summer? Blame the PDO turning cold, which won’t change the atmosphere overnight but what I think has show evidence of large-scale change was when the Nina went strong in 2008, which casted a shadow of cold across western North America, forcing intense cold to form over Alaska and the Yukon (coldest in over 10 years when it got to -72 in Chicken, AK). The cold of 07-08 matured and progressed east after a cool summer in 08 from Alaska into the upper Great Lakes region. 08-09 winter cold went from where 07-08 left off and with a rebuilding of Arctic ice (despite melting now which is normal) has created a strong feed to the Arctic atmosphere making it remain frigid. The Hudson Bay ice and lingering cold made for an air mass to sit where it normally wouldnt as recent years has led to earlier than normal melting off the Bay, this year that didn’t happen, therefore explaining why this year has in stark contrast to recent years. A nice cold air mass has lingered over the Bay and surrounding areas after a cold May kept ice almost covering Hudson Bay through mid-June. A building western ridge 1) that is in a normal heat/high pressure breeding ground and 2) possibly enhanced by the warming of the equatorial Pacific has pumped warm air way up into the Arctic region of Alaska and eastern Russia, forcing a strong amplification of the jet stream, a near “cross polar flow” has pushed or pulled colder than normal air over northern Canada way south into the Great Lakes and all the way down towards the Gulf. The sheer force of hot air lifting north and forcing this downward migration of real chill into the eastern half of the US, nature balancing out it’s heat budget??

The colder Pacific of the last 2 years I believe has brought colder waters back up into the Arctic Ocean between Russia and Alaska as the strong southerly flow has been persistent since the end of last winter. Hot air has melted off much of the ice surrounding Alaska and 74 degrees has been recorded at Barrow, AK and 91 across the interior at Fairbanks, but lots of ice is still evident further east and quite possibly where winter will be toughest in 09-10…

The reasoning for such unusually cold air so far south is because we’ve seen the coldest winter in years up in Arctic and central Canada, perhaps even the warming Pacific in a cold PDO has pumped up the Pacific ridge.

Interesting stuff. Watch Death Valley the next few days. I’m routing for 128 whilst the wall of warmth does finally push east erasing the Midwest and eastern Plains chill in coming days..
Thanks for reading.
– Mark