>Rain is battering off the windows here in my office and I have just showered with thoughts swimming around my head that I need to get down here.
I wonder… With the building of powerful high pressure over the desert Southwest has this rippled across the Northern hemisphere bringing an end to the warm, dry summer here in the United Kingdom??
With the vast plunge of the eastern trough caused by the strengthening of western high pressure sending a shock wave across the atmosphere, just like ripples on your bed sheets. The cooler, wetter pattern now in force across the UK and much of western Europe could have been triggered half way across the world. Due to a deep trough drapped down across western Europe we see hotter conditions return to central and eastern Europe and in the far east we see the monsoon intensify across India. My big question is this, What is the great trigger to why high pressure intensifies? The fluxing of the atmosphere and the rotatating earth allows our weather to move along west to east, what forces the changes in a huge scale?
I understand oceans role with their temperature flucuations which alter strength and movement of pressure systems, but what makes the change between positive and negative North Atlantic Oscillations or Arctic Oscillations? What was the force behind strengthening the high that was first stationed over Texas to start the summer and then push west. I understand why hotter air will expand and thus expand the high pressure cell. This expanding of high pressure and perhaps movement of low pressures around them, pump or deflate high’s.
Is there a teleconnection between the trough over the eastern half of North America and the other over western Europe? Does these twin troughs adjust the Indian monsoon? What about the flexing of the subtropical ridge? Does lack of tropical cyclone productivity and therefore lack of heat removal from the tropical belt force a stronger Subtropical high across the Atlantic and Sahara Desert? Hotter surface temperatures?
Did a colder winter across Europe and North America aid deeper troughs across the Northern Hemisphere this summer? Perhaps! Since were are seeing likely some of the coldest July air over the Midwest and eastern US in years, possibly some of the coolest ever July temps.
I find it facinating that now the turn from warm, dry stable air to cool, wet and unstable air arrives here in Scotland at the same time a heat wave forms over the western US, a trough drops unseasonably cold air into the eastern US and the Indian monsoon revs up…
There appears to be a lack of tropical cyclone development in both Pacific and Atlantic is this because despite the El Nino forming, the Pacific is in a cold mode and because of a clear cooling of the tropical Atlantic (solar minumum?) Yes the Pacific is warming, yet the Atlantic is cool, we are slow in the tropical cyclone department and the heatwaves are situated in the right places. Jey heat breeding regions of the planet… Sahara, Mojave, Arabian! Nothing new there, yet with the exceptions to the “temporary warming” of the Pacific, the oceans are cooler, more ice than recent years over the Arctic? The cooling cycle continues!
This is random and likely not that structured but as is often the case, thoughts running through my head.
Thanks for reading.
– Mark