United Kingdom & Ireland

It looks like September ends as driest on record or since 1911 for the UK. No real surprise given there was no recovery to wetter during the second half of the month. Well as the old saying goes, nothing last’s forever and in the world of weather and our atmosphere, a pattern will only last so long […]

Good morning! Changes are being seen by all models this upcoming 7-14 day period with the NAO dropping back towards neutral then negative. This to me suggests more wet than cold. Saying that the AO is going negative too say perhaps I should watch the potential air masses coming down closely. I’ve stated for some time now […]

Thanks to a steep pressure gradient between a 960 Norwegian Sea low and 1024 high over southern England, winds are blowing hard out of the west across the Northern UK, even stronger up over Orkney, Shetland and the Faroe Isles. It’s a classic autumnal feel, a good old leaf stripper while southern England and Wales […]

No change in overall autumn ideas. Warm October and November with turn to much wetter conditions into November. The new Jamstec is out and it interestingly expands cold again over Western Europe including all of the UK and Ireland. Old New [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The El Nino is slowly coming on and will be present come winter. For us […]

The latest CFSv2 weeklies are out and they want to hold the mean ridge over the UK and Ireland through most of October. CFSv2 for October [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As you can see it shows wetter than normal! The Southern half of the UK down into the near continent should stay much drier than normal given […]

Winter may seem like a million miles away from the UK these days but it’s not for some. I showed you evidence just 2 days ago that snow was present in northern Sweden. Here’s what part’s of Finland are waking to this morning. Another spot dealing with winter these days is Summit Camp in the […]

The models had it coming! Snowy in northern Sweden this morning… Jukkasjärvi Kiruna Another view of Kiruna [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The ECMWF surface map at 24 hours shows high pressure bringing the chilly morning’s and pleasant, sunny days while low pressure and cold northerly winds on the backside bring snow to northern Sweden. It’s chilly here too […]

Simply by glancing at the recent NAO index you can see why we had the cool, wet August and warm, dry September and with the flat lining or neutral coming up, why we’ve a zonal pattern coming up. I got my first soaking rain or wet ground actually since August this morning! ECMWF surface charts […]

Last night I put up a post on the Antarctic sea ice record and 6th lowest for the arctic. What’s significant is that the arctic has lost far LESS ice this year compared to last and that may or may not be a big deal for the upcoming winter across not just Europe but the hemisphere. […]