Simply by glancing at the recent NAO index you can see why we had the cool, wet August and warm, dry September and with the flat lining or neutral coming up, why we’ve a zonal pattern coming up.

I got my first soaking rain or wet ground actually since August this morning!

ECMWF surface charts below show the ridge building in through the second half of this weekend, replacing the showers and storms but cast your eyes to the system over southern Greenland. That not only brings us our next spell of wet, breezy weather by later Monday, Tuesday but will adjust our upper air flow to a westerly direction and that should carry us into October.

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Both GFS/ECMWF have snow for a decent swath of Scandinavia.

CFSv2 has a predominantly zonal upper air pattern from North America to Europe next month. Should be mild and wet. See recent posts for global ice discussion and it’s significance as well as long range thoughts for winter!  Though the CFSv2 DOESN’T have the cold US winter (yet), it’s going right to 2009-10 for the UK/West of Europe.

I appreciate that it’s only September but this is rather interesting and worth a close watch… Finally, the arctic cold pool or ‘polar vortex’ can be seen developing as we enter October. Look for it to stay coldest over the pole (neutral to positive AO through much of autumn)

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