Seasonal Forecasts
High pressure has been talked about all week but because of this highly amplified, blocky pattern at the moment, the high and low over Denmark has been slow to moves east, therefore we’ve held onto that naggy northerly flow and frequent shower pattern longer. The good news is that we see a little more west-east […]
We’re into September and approaching the height of the arctic sea ice melt season. This usually coincides with regeneration of cold over the pole and the sun angle continues to lower from it’s peak back on June 21. There’s a lag of about a month between longest day and warmest time of year but by late August, […]
Well we’re now into September and as the summer sea ice melt season peaks, that’s usually around the time cold begins to regenerate over the high latitudes. Sure enough the next 10 days sees the strengthening of the polar vortex at 10pha over the pole. o hours 240 hours There appears to be changes happening […]
It’s been a summer of contrasts across the US with some seeing their wettest while others see their driest. Here was August’s anomalies. Sept thus far! Where wet it’s been cool and where dry, it’s been record warm. The Pacific Northwest region takes the cake for worsening drought conditions than anywhere in the Lower 48. […]
As we head into September I continue to watch the overall global pattern and the primary drivers. The El Nino is strong and influential to the global circulation, however as I’ve pointed out previously, there are competing factors which suggest there’s nothing obvious as of now. By that I mean we can’t just look at this […]
Despite it’s location in the easternmost Tropical Atlantic, an archipelago of 10 volcanic islands make up Cape Verde. This region has not witnessed a hurricane landfall for some 123 years, well up until a few days ago when a potent wave almost immediately became a depression off Senegal, West Africa. Satellite view of Cape Verde Satellite view of Fred over Cape Verde […]
I’m continuing to find my feet here in the new house. The good news is I now have broadband up and running, however the main computer has yet to get setup, largely due to no computer table and really since Friday, I’ve been snowed under. I’ve more time tomorrow (Thursday) and hope to get the my PC […]
I came to the conclusion around mid-August and issued my outlook on August 24 stating that a drier and much more settled September was likely based on global drivers, type of summer pattern we’ve had and sure enough the models appear to be going to my idea that at least through mid month, high pressure […]
The tropical Atlantic has turned quiet once again with the collapse of Erika but in the eastern basin, we’ve seen the first Cape Verde hurricane since 1892 with Fred producing 80+mph wind which caused power loss and some damage. As for the United States, Erika may have fallen apart over Cuba with her remains drifting […]
Meteorological summer 2015 ended yesterday and Autumn begins today! In the coming days I will be writing up a review of the summer and compare it to the forecast issued back on April 1. I think it’s safe to say that the summer forecast this year has been pretty spoyt on and probably the best since commencing seasonal […]
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