I’m continuing to find my feet here in the new house. The good news is I now have broadband up and running, however the main computer has yet to get setup, largely due to no computer table and really since Friday, I’ve been snowed under. I’ve more time tomorrow (Thursday) and hope to get the my PC setup but still need and table. Once that’s done i’ll have a video for you.

Well, onto the weather and what’s happening. As pointed out in last evening’s post, Erica is done but still enhancing thunderstorm activity across Florida as well as the Southeast. Fred is quickly dissipating after bringing the first hurricane to the  Cape Verde Islands since 1892, why? The system came off Africa well organised and crossed out over unusually warm water (88F) which combined with good atmospheric conditions, allowed the system to rapidly develop into a storm and then hurricane BEFORE reaching the island chain. Pretty much unheard of.

As for the Lower 48, well it’s been pretty quiet with a true summer pattern developing while a true shot of fall drops down the West Coast.

The below GFS 500mb charts show the evolution of the pattern across the continent from a hemispheric perspective. While the ridge pumps into eastern Canada, we must watch carefully underneath. This movement from Pacific into NA also pushes a strong North Atlantic ridge into Western Europe.

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Note the tropical cyclone conga line over the Pacific while the model is picking up on the system near Bermuda which is sees drifting WESTWARD underneath the building ridge to the north.

As seen throughout the summer, this is a highly TRANSIENT pattern with trough digging into the west/ridge lifting into eastern Canada but within the next 10 days, that trough is replaced by a ridge then another trough!

Here’s a close-up of North America. That’s an impressive trough that will bring impressive cool down with it.

Big negative/positive anomalies between Montana and Minnesota as a result on Friday!

Check this out, mid/upper 40s for western Montana at the same time northern Minnesota is in the upper 90s!

An impressive contrast with Friday AM lows too. 20s over the Pacific Northwest verses 80s in the Dakotas.

There’s a large cluster of thunderstorms which originated  just off the Lower Texas coast, this is drifting NW into Louisiana this morning.

With a new tropical system off Baja, rich moisture will get lifted up into the Desert Southwest, enhancing the monsoon.

Between the systems pushing into the Pacific Northwest and moisture from the tropical cyclone off Baja California, there’s plentiful moisture streaming up through the Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately not much of California.

Yes the trough is cool enough to bring snow over the high elevations of the West.

It’s been a tropical season on first’s in both Atlantic and Pacific. Fred was not only the first hurricane hit since 1892 for Cape Verde but was also the easternmost Atlantic hurricane on record.

As for the Pacific, the monstrous heat tank that is the Pacific these days has not just fuelled a very active season thus far but also produced three hurricanes which topped Category 4 strength at the same time. A first!

Here’s why! Just look at how warm The tropical Pacific is. Hawaii is a sitting duck with waters well above what they should be.

Current SST’s

SSTA’s

The Atlantic isn’t particularly favourable right now as high pressure remains strong through the western MDR (main development region) but into mid or late September, there’s an increase in upward motion over the western basin.

More tomorrow.

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Tags: el nino, ENSO, hurricane fred, hurricane season 2015, tropical cyclone, tropics