Seasonal Forecasts
Every Saturday in the run up to New Year, I thought it might be good to take a step back in time and relive some of our very worst, most extreme winters of the last 100 years. The brutal winter of 1962-63 will be long remembered as one of the worst. Take a look at this amazing […]
It would be foolish to base a forecast on any particular model run solution. For long range forecasting in particular, when accuracy greatly falls away week at 5 days or beyond, we look for trends, consistently over one particular solution and cross model agreement. Let me just say there’s consistency and agreement that the big positive centred over […]
UPDATE: Winds gusting 112 mph over Aonach Mor summit, just north of Fort William. We’re in for a wild end to the work week and weekend of weather all courtesy of a near 940 low near Iceland and near 1040 high over the Bay of Biscay. That steep gradient means a very windy, if not stormy […]
The majority of the US is now entering a tranquil, mild high pressure pattern as we head deeper into December. The only real weather to speak of will be in the Pacific Northwest as well as a a couple of systems running up the East Coast but on the whole, by early winter standards, it’s a quiet pattern […]
An incredible back and fourth swing in recent months with a dry September, October and very wet November and now open to December. September was the UK’s coolest since 1994 while November was 3rd warmest on record and dullest on record too. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Remember, up until this year, the warmest November day was set back […]
It’s worth pointing out that while there’s a great deal of hype even excitement regarding the evolving warm December pattern, what’s being overlooked is the fact that Canada is nearly completely snow covered and as well as that there’s a good deal more snow not just over North America but hemisphere wide compared to this time last […]
The seeds to a warm, wet, zonal December have been sown. We have an on going cooling of the polar stratosphere at all levels which will bundle the coldest air within the arctic circle through much of this month. This draws warmer air from subtropics into mid-latitudes and powers a stronger than normal jet stream across Pacific, North America, Atlantic […]
December 2015 appears on track to be a pretty mild month, especially across the Northern Tier. The polar stratosphere continues to strengthen with temps at 10mb dipping towards -80C within the next 10 days. This supports a strong westerly influence throughout the mid-latitudes with oceanic air largely dominating the continents. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The question is, could […]
Today marks the start of the coldest 90 days of the year. Meteorological Winter has begun. Will it be one to remember or forget? It was certainly a cold, frosty, icy and for some, SNOWY open to meteorological winter 2015-16 but today ends significantly milder as a surge of warmer air lifts northward, courtesy of the latest Atlantic system. […]
The below global SST map is one that should be copied and pasted. We may never see such a warm Pacific in our lifetime again. But 1997 was warm, Mark? In the TROPICAL Pacific yes but not North Pacific! While December is poised to be mild for much of the country, assume the rest of […]
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