The below global SST map is one that should be copied and pasted. We may never see such a warm Pacific in our lifetime again. But 1997 was warm, Mark? In the TROPICAL Pacific yes but not North Pacific!

While December is poised to be mild for much of the country, assume the rest of the winter is mild at your peril, there’s plenty of evidence that January and February aren’t so warm. Sure, there may be mild spells but I think there’s a lot of fun and games beyond Christmas if not New Year.

Cold November’s during El Nino years have a tendency to have milder overall winters but a warm November tends to have the opposite.

November has been much above normal just like November 2009.

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Quite often, El Nino years supply a mild December following a mild November but with that warm water stacked up into the north Pacific and Atlantic, feedback from ocean to atmosphere usually kicks in mid and late winter and it’s interesting to see the Canadian show the big positive over southern Canada in December migrate further and further north January and February.

The key is the position of warm water in the equatorial Pacific and it’s clearly less warm against Peru than further west towards the dateline.

Jan 16

Feb 16

The evolution of this pattern November-December pattern and continued warming over the North Atlantic around Greenland could support a very impressive spell of snow and cold in January or February, perhaps both because the strength of the arctic oscillation and concentration of cold within the arctic means that if and hopefully when heights begin to build north, there may be a tremendous amount of cold ready to plunge south.

As for the CFSv2, you don’t get much of a stronger +NAO/AO December than this.

Here’s why!

But even the typically warm CFSv2 sees height rises further north January, February.

See video for the discussion.

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