An incredible back and fourth swing in recent months with a dry September, October and very wet November and now open to December. September was the UK’s coolest since 1994 while November was 3rd warmest on record and dullest on record too.

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Remember, up until this year, the warmest November day was set back in 1946 only to be followed by an infamous winter. Pre January-February warm and wet doesn’t write off winter by any means but it doesn’t mean it cannot be mild either.

Well the Atlantic continues to bombard us with waves of mild and moist air following the general theme of November, albeit fresher air holds to the north but following a 10C temp surge which erased 6 inches of snow within 24 hrs. Monday night it was snow, cold whereas Tuesday night was mild and drippy at 10C and last night? Frosty!! To the south of that stuck boundary separating the UK in two, it’s wet and very mild.

That boundary separating cold from warm and driving the powerful trans-Atlantic jet straight across the Atlantic, Ireland and the UK will continue to pivot north-south over the next 36 hours bringing an additional 2, 3 possibly 4 inches of rain.

GFS rainfall through next 72 hrs.

The end of this nasty spell in nowhere near in sight I’m afraid. Powered by a nearly straight west-east jet that’s expected to accelerate beyond 200mph early this weekend will drive further systems in with possibly the nastiest system yet tomorrow evening into Saturday.

180 knot (207 mph) core roars over the Outer Hebrides early Sat AM.

The model may see another 4 inches fall in the next 3 days but also sees 7 inches within the next 7 days!

I wish to draw particular attention to a system later Friday on into Saturday. An impressively steep pressure gradient develops through tomorrow with low pressure near Iceland dipping towards 940mb while a 1032mb high in over the Bay of Biscay.

This setup accompanied by a powerful jet overhead may present a damaging wind threat not just to exposed coasts and hills of Ireland and the UK late Friday and through much of Saturday. Gusts of 45-65 mph could be widespread with 90 mph gusts on exposed coasts including coastal Europe.

Very windy weekend for not just Ireland and UK but mainland Europe too.

This loaded Atlantic pattern continues through the weekend on into next week with further spells of wind and rain, flooding for some, perhaps damage for others.

Looks like the models build heights north over the Atlantic around the 11-12th which may pull in more arctic brand air.

See this morning’s video for a detailed look at the above.

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