Rest of Europe
As we progress through October, the various teleconnections we look at for winter prediction becomes more important and interesting. So what do we look for? Teleconnection / Current Status Equatorial Pacific (Neutral-La Nina) North Pacific SST Profile (-PDO) North Atlantic SST (+AMO) Indian Ocean SST (Neutral IOD) QBO (west) Behavior of the MJO Siberian snow […]
September has been a crazy month with big temperature swings and historic rain/flood events for UK as well as Europe. From record +NAO in August to record -NAO in September with unusually strong blocking over Greenland has had a lot to do with how extreme this month has been. According to World Climate Service, based […]
UPDATED 5 SEPT, 2024 Re-Analysis Connecting Last Winter-Summer-Winter Ahead Based on NINO Transitions & Delayed Response In order to improve long range seasonal forecasts, we must look back at what’s happened and learn from mistakes. When analysing last winter, we transitioned from La Nina (3 years in a row) to El Nino. SST’s in the […]
Summer 2024 will go down as a disappointment for Northwest Europe and hottest on record for Southeast Europe and for that matter, most of the continent east of Germany. While the west of the continent observed fluctuation as the season progressed (trough replaced by ridge), the east remained on the hot side throughout. Summer got […]
It’s been a summer of pattern persistence with the late spring shaping June and July. The North Atlantic’s warming off Newfoundland and cooling off Ireland with no outside forcing to disrupt has provided a cool and often unsettled west Europe vs hot, dry east Europe with stormy in between. 500mb geopotential height anomaly 1 May […]
The first half of June 2024 witnessed a very marked NW to SE contrast across the continent. The continuation of a highly blocked hemispheric wave 7 pattern led to a frequent southward push of arctic air initially over the UK and Ireland but with time through France, Spain and Portugal. Meanwhile unusually hot air (for […]
The seemingly never ending warm, wet theme continued through May for UK, Ireland and Western Europe. A persistent block across the north has led to a north-south divide in UK rainfall distribution with a relatively dry N/W Highlands but very wet Midlands and South. The firmly south displayed jet stream has been somewhat of a […]
Welcome to my 14th annual UK, Europe summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which are taken into consideration. They include the past winter pattern, type of spring just observed as well as the current ENSO state, global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies as well […]
For the UK and Ireland, April 2024 has been a distinct tail of two halves with mild, wet first half to cooler, drier 2nd half. Quite incredible to see several places record their wettest April on record through just the first 12 days! https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1780951162877063297 Overall it’s been wetter and likely slightly warmer than average for […]
The warm, wet theme continued for the UK and Ireland through March 2024 despite the most significant of three SSW’s and favourable MJO cold phases of 7-8-1. And even the most negative NAO since January when we saw our 2nd and final cold (for some), snowy spell of winter 2023-24. March anomaly. MET OFFICE: Spring starts […]
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