Europe June 2025 Outlook

Written by on May 31, 2025 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

Despite the unsettled end to May and likely ‘wipe out’ of being one of the driest May’s, spring 2025 goes down as mildest, sunniest on record for the UK and Ireland and one of the driest.

For Europe, May was warm and dry in the west and cool and wet in the east.

Credit: Weatherbell

Spring as a whole has been firmly warmer than average for Europe except for Iberia where it’s been persistently wet thanks to LP stuck beneath the block.

Credit: Weatherbell

Part of a hemisphere-wide blocking setup, I believe the 2nd early final stratospheric warming on record is the cause or at least, in large part.

The wet final week has really taken a dent from the UK’s rainfall deficit as seen below. Drier south.

MET OFFICE: Double record breaker: Spring 2025 is warmest and sunniest on UK record

Excerpt from MO press release

Spring 2025 has broken historical climate records, marking an unprecedented season of warmth and sunshine across the UK, according to provisional Met Office statistics.

The UK, and all four nations, have all recorded their warmest spring for mean temperature since the series began in 1884, surpassing the previous record from 2024. This season also outshone the rest, claiming the title of sunniest spring on record for the UK, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, with England recording its second sunniest spring since sunshine records began in 1910. 

To put this into context, Spring 2025 is now the fourth sunniest season overall for the UK, with only three summers sunnier since 1910.   

The remarkable season unfolded month by month, beginning with a record-breaking sunny March that set the tone, with above-average temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall. April 2025 continued the trend as the UK’s sunniest April on record, maintaining the warm and dry pattern. May rounded off the season as the second sunniest May on record for the UK, with temperatures again exceeding the average. 

Record-breaking temperatures 

This spring’s mean temperature of 9.5°C surpassed the long-term climatological average by 1.4°C, making it the warmest spring since the series began in 1884. It’s worth noting that eight of the ten warmest UK springs have occurred since the year 2000, and the three warmest springs have all occurred since 2017, a sign of our changing climate.  

All four nations also recorded their highest spring mean temperature, with Northern Ireland and Scotland recording notably high temperatures, up 1.6°C on average . For Northern Ireland, this meant surpassing the previous long-standing warmest average spring temperature, set back in 1893.  

Credit: Met Office

Extraordinary sunshine  

With 653.3 hours of sunshine – 43% above average – Spring 2025 has outshone all previous springs since the series in 1910. This exceptional season exceeded the previous record (from 2020) by over 27 hours. This has been the fourth sunniest overall season for the UK (and the sunniest since 1995), and the sunniest overall season for Northern Ireland. 

Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales all recorded their sunniest springs on record before the month was out, beating their 2020 records. England recorded its second sunniest spring on record, with only 2020 sunnier. Now, seven of the UK’s ten sunniest springs having occurred since 2000.  

Credit: Met Office

Very low rainfall 

This combination of heat and sunshine, coupled with very low rainfall, has created challenging conditions across much of the country for agriculture and water resources. 

By mid-May, the UK was experiencing its driest spring in over 100 years. Although recent wet weather has eased conditions slightly, Spring 2025 still ranks as the sixth driest spring since this series began in 1836, with just 128.2mm of rainfall – approximately 40% below the long-term average and still the driest spring in more than 50 years.  

England was particularly dry, experiencing its driest spring in more than 100 years, beaten only by 1893. Wales saw its sixth driest spring, and all other nations fell out of the top ten driest by the end of the month. 

Credit: Met Office

May 2025 provisional statistics 

May overall will be remembered as sunny, warm and dry, with high pressure dominating for most of the month. The weather turned more unsettled from the 23rd onwards, as lower pressure pushed towards the UK and frontal systems brought much-needed rain to much of the country.  

Abundant May sunshine 

Again, the sun shone for the majority of May, meaning the UK recorded its second sunniest month, behind the 2020 top spot. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland though saw their sunniest May, with Wales its second and England its third.  

Credit: Met Office

Well-above average temperatures 

It was a warm month too, with the UK recording its fifth warmest May on record. England recorded its second warmest May, with Northern Ireland its third, Wales its sixth and Scotland its seventh. 

Credit: Met Office

Below average rainfall 

Although the first half of the month saw below average rainfall, with the UK seeing only 3.3mm of rainfall by the 17th, this increased through the second half of the month leaving the UK to have recorded 72% of its average May rainfall. England was the driest of the nations, recording 57% and here, there was a clear north/south divide, with Northern England recording 75% and Southern England just 47%.  

Credit: Met Office
Credit: Met Office

Charts from Reading University

Rainfall

Credit: Reading University
Credit: Reading University

Max/Min Temp

Credit: Reading University
Credit: Reading University

Mean Temp anomaly

Credit: Reading University

May 2025 Monthly Weather Report

Highest Maximum 29.3°C on 1st at Kew Gardens (Greater London, 6mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum 7.6°C on 3rd at Loch Glascarnoch (Ross & Cromarty, 269mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 15.6°C on 30th at Hawarden Airport (Clwyd, 11mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum -5.1°C on 23rd at Altnaharra No 2 (Sutherland, 81mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum -9.4°C on 23rd at Dalwhinnie No 2 (Inverness-shire, 351mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 72.6mm on 24th at Seathwaite (Cumbria, 129mAMSL)
Most Sunshine 15.7hr on 14th at Lerwick (Shetland, 82mAMSL)
Highest Gust 57Kt 66mph on 27th at Wight: Needles Old Battery (Isle Of Wight, 80mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*) 76Kt 87mph on 29th at Cairnwell (Aberdeenshire, 928mAMSL)

My May 2025 Stats

Highlights

– Coolest May
– Coldest May max (10.9C) & min temp (-0.2C)
– Most nights below 0°C: 2 (0 lst yr)
– Latest 0°C in the year (23rd)
– Only 1 minimum above 10°C (10 last year)
– Record streak of rainless days: 18
– Wettest May

UK, Ireland, Europe & Global Highlights

Unsettled End To Spring, Start To Summer…

The persistent blocking high we’ve become so accustomed to for weeks feels like a distant memory following the dramatic shift through the final week of May & spring.

That shift could well be down to the MJO waking up over the Indio Pacific.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Causing a strengthening of the Pacific and Atlantic jet.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

An increase in convection has brought a fast, furious onset to the Asian monsoon and increased flood potential across SE Asia/N Australia.

However, this large-scale increase in upward motion and it’s now EASTWARD progression across the Pacific looks to have set off a chain reaction into June and start of meteorological summer.

As the convection within the tropics moves east, so too does of rossby-wave to the north and it’s causing a wave break (like a ripple within the atmosphere).

Extreme heat is present over North America, Africa and Europe. The atmospheric wave breaking is drawing heat out of the subtropics towards the temperature latitudes, even high latitudes and this shall continue through June.

A dance between high and low pressure starts off meteorological summer with cool anomalies and unusually deep low starting things off for the UK/Ireland.

Credit: wxcharts
Credit: wxcharts
Credit: Tropical Tidbits

However, there’s concern over some significant, potentially record heat (for so early) lifting north week 1 into 2 for W Europe including UK/Ireland.

Details remain uncertain and complex but HIGHER PRESSURE looks to build north over Western Europe towards mid-month with a few northward pulses of heat which could send temps into the 30s up into England with general warmer, drier trend between 10-20th June.

The CFSv2 shows the high building and the drying trend.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 for June 2025

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Warmer Than Normal June For All UK & Ireland, Potentially Wetter NW, Drier SERecord Challenging Heat For Southern, Central Europe!

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