For much of Europe away from Scandinavia and Russia, June has been a warm month (one of the warmest from Spain to Germany), cooler and wetter Iceland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Baltics.
The 500mb geopotential shows an extreme Icelandic trough/Med ridge setup leading to persistent heat across the South vs much fresher Atlantic influence across the North with a battle in between.
Temp anomaly June 1-28th
My overall summer idea coincided very nicely with June’s outcome.
The tug of war between a deep Icelandic trough and Iberia to Italy ridge has provided persistent heat across the west, central Mediterranean up into France with pulses of heat expanding and contracting over the Benelux and SE UK.
Atlantic fronts associated with lows N & W have frequently swept east punching the heat dome and ‘at times’ temporarily deflating it from S UK/N France/Benelux to Germany but the unusually strong ridge has always bounced back between fronts.
Atlantic fronts containing fresher oceanic air has frequently collided with the high heat and humidity dominating southern Europe leading to frequent storms which have packed quite the punch. Damaging wind, large hail, frequent lightning and local flooding. 2-3 rounds of strong storms have also impacted the UK.
Iberia, France, perhaps Italy has seen the most consistent ridging and heat, however the Low Countries has seen unusually high temperatures consistently through the month with 2-3 heat surges crossing the channel into the UK.
While the SE has seen pretty persistent ‘continental’ heat, further N & W over the UK it’s been hit and miss at best, courtesy of the closer proximity to low pressure and fronts.
One notable push of warmth came 19-21 June with 43.2C recorded in Spain, 41C Portugal, 37C France, 33.2C at London’s Kew Gardens while Ireland recorded it’s warmest day since 2018 with 29.6C at Roscommon. Warmest day for the rest of the UK.
Like Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam, it’s been persistently warmer-than-normal for London and East Anglia with most days exceeding 23C, even 25C and 2-3 pulses of 30+ in between ‘high deflating’ fronts. As of the 29th, London has observed 23 days at or above 25C so far. According to London & Southeast this compares to a mere 7 at this point in June back during the last ‘hot summer’ in 2022.
The next expansion of the semi-permanent heat dome will be strongest with National June, perhaps all-time heat records under threat.
One of The Strongest Upper Ridges To End June?
The stage is set, with all ingredients in place over Europe and a stronger than normal Atlantic jet driving flow east causing pressure and heat to build downstream over Europe, amplification of the ridge is likely to push historic physical limits for late June/early July.
The month closes on a record hot note with one of the strongest June upper ridges. An approach of the 600dm thickness contour over N Spain and France, 594 over Belgium and 591 SE England is reaching maximum upper ridge strength’s for end of June. A slight eastward shift of the ridge core will generate southerly flow likely drives the peak in maximum temps…
The expansion of the troposphere to a depth of 5000 to 6000 metres above ground leads to greatest depth of sinking and compression which could lead to surface temps threatening all-time June records for Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, possibly UK.
8-12C above normal builds Sun-Tue (29th-1st Jul)
Away from England and Wales, the rest of the UK & likely Ireland will witness ‘modest summer warmth) and as the ridge begins to expand north, it’s unseasonably windy (50+mph) for N UK around the northern periphery with large offshore swells.
June records & chance of breaking the record… (originally written 28th June)
Spain 45.2C (possible)
Portugal 43.2C (possible)
France 46C (unlikely)
Belgium 38.8C (possible)
Netherlands 36.5C (possible)
UK 35.6C (unlikely)
The hottest days will come during the opening days of July with even a threat of all-time records!
The opening days of July see a cooling trend W-E starting over Ireland followed by the UK. The opening day of July could ‘potentially’ be hotter for SE England (35-36C?) than the final day of June but that’s uncertain due to timing of a front. However, the Europe mainland will be in the firm grip of the hottest air mass of the year thus far with records threatened from N Spain to Germany.
England’s warmest June on record and the UK’s second warmest since 1884
June 2025 Monthly Weather Report
Highest Maximum 33.2°C on 21st at Charlwood (Surrey, 67mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum 10.1°C on 3rd at Loch Glascarnoch (Ross & Cromarty, 269mAMSL)
also on 4th at Dalwhinnie No 2 (Inverness-shire, 351mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 20.5°C on 21st at Nettlecombe (Somerset, 96mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum 0.0°C on 8th at Braemar No 2 (Aberdeenshire, 327mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum -4.2°C on 9th at Kinross (Kinross-shire, 116mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 70.9mm on 27th at Brothers Water, Hartsop Hall (Cumbria, 167mAMSL)
Most Sunshine 15.8hr on 19th at Hazelrigg (Lancashire, 95mAMSL)
Highest Gust 61Kt 70mph on 3rd at Capel Curig No 3 (Gwynedd, 216mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*) 99Kt 114mph on 2nd at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
My June 2025 Stats
Highlights…
– New MONTHLY & SUMMER wind gust record of 51.5kph on 23rd & 28th!
– New June low pressure record!
– 5°C temp drop in 15 mins!
– 22nd June featured the passage of a frontal system which produced a rainfall rate of nearly 50mm p/hr, lightning and gusty winds.
UK, Ireland, Europe & Global Highlights
Scotland bakes at 28C on hottest day of the year
20 June 2025
Temperatures have risen above 28C on what is Scotland’s hottest day of the year so far.
A peak of 28.9C was recorded at Drumnadrochit on the shore of Loch Ness, while Charterhall in the Scottish Borders and Aboyne in Aberdeenshire hit 28.7C. Edinburgh reached 28.4C, ahead of Glasgow on 27.3C.
The average temperature for this point in June in Scotland is around 17C.
Meanwhile, parts of England could declare a heatwave on Friday, with temperatures expected to go as high as 32C.
Northern Ireland may see highs in excess of 25C. While in Wales maximum temperatures will range from 28C to 31C.
The previous hottest day of 2025 was last Friday, with Lossiemouth recording a top temperature of 25.7C.
The current warm spell is not technically a heatwave. In Scotland, it must reach 25C on at least three consecutive days in the same area to meet the criteria.
On Thursday, Glasgow’s top temperature was 24.4C, so even with Friday and Saturday both expected to reach above 25C, it will be just shy of a heatwave.
Friday’s highest temperature of 28.9C surpasses 2024’s warmest day, when a high of 28C was recorded in Oyne, Aberdeenshire.
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SPAIN & PORTUGAL PROVISIONALLY SET NEW JUNE HEAT RECORD!
Saturday 28th June, 2025 will go down as historic in Spain. A temperature of 46.0C was recorded and confirmed at El Granado (Huelva). This breaks Spain’s previous June record of 45.2C reached back in 1965.
On Saturday 28th June, a maximum of 46.4C was recorded at Alvega, provisionally setting a new June record for Portugal. This was followed by a maximum of 46.6C at Mora on Sunday 29th which breaks the previous record set the previous day. There is some speculation on how accurate these readings are it must be said.
Tweet ‘translated’ from Extrême Météo on 1st July
Swelteringly unbearable day today in France with: – 1 absolute record for #heat – 34 monthly heat records – 7 monthly heat records tied – 48 stations recording 40°C and above (also 10 Infoclimat stations exceeding 40°C) – Maximum temperatures above 35°C, covering 90% of the territory Source data: Meteociel – Infoclimat – Keraunos
Beyond The Hot Opening Days of July?
While one high pressure cell exits east into central Europe, another develops west of Ireland. Before that high reforms from the Atlantic, some disturbances appear to develop and drift from Biscay north over the UK, possibly Ireland generating thundery showers and longer spells of rain with a humid, unsettled theme then that high with possible west position, generates a WNW flow bringing less warm, humid air into UK and Ireland, perhaps reaching mainland Europe.
The below CFS2 weeklies shows the pattern change from warm to hot high pressure handing off to a cooler, more W then NW positioned high weeks 1, 2, 3.
This supports a dry overall pattern.
Cool north/warm south followed by warmer rebuilding north during 2nd half of July.
The CFSv2 for July overall supports warmer, drier than normal.
I recon, through the 2nd half of the month, the high shifts east with approaching lows from the west presenting further opportunity for building heat from Iberia to UK. Unfortunately, this very classic summer pattern always focuses ‘best of summer weather’ further south over UK.
Heat is likely to remain strong across the Med extending into central Europe with more north-south fluctuation of heat and humidity into the S UK, possibly Ireland. A similar synoptic pattern to June with Icelandic trough/Med ridge setup.
With regard to the MJO, which isn’t as much of a driver at this time of year, is predicted to focus ascent of air over the Indian/Pacific oceans and descent over the Atlantic. This supports the above thinking with stronger and slightly further north position of the subtropical ridge.
I believe a lack of Atlantic tropical activity will keep this June pattern going through much if not all of July.
GFS and ECMWF 30-day shows Arctic/Greenland trough with strong belt of of positive heights through the mid lats. Jet stream generally north of Scotland.
The July Verdict…
Near Average to Slightly Below Average Temperature & Precipitation across Northern Ireland and Scotland, Warmer, Drier than normal (with further hot spells) Ireland, Wales and England. Cooler Across Scandinavia, Well above normal and drier than normal Southern/central Europe. Further record challenging heat!
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Kulik Bertrand
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