Mark Vogan
The ECMWF has plenty of summer heat across much of the country through next week with a return to 90s for the Mid-Atlantic by Monday. While the strong and expansive west-east ridge keeps things warm, the model also shows a continuation of the rather active Pacific track storm with more strong low dropping out of the Gulf […]
A storm system working east along the International border has a cold front draped south over the Plains and as usual this is triggering thunderstorms which if they haven’t already, will turn severe as they run into increasingly hot and humid air out ahead. These surface temperatures in the map below greatly raise the lapse rate (measure of temperature difference with […]
[warning]MORE HEAVY RAIN SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ENGLAND AND WALES TONIGHT LIKELY BRINGING MORE FLOODING. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN IRELAND, CENTRAL, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND WHERE 1-2″ MAY FALL[/warning] After a fairly pleasant Thursday across much of the northern Rep, Northern Ireland and much of the UK, the wind and rain is coming and is already impacting southern […]
Yesterday we saw an area of disturbed weather to the west of Central America become a depression and now during the overnight hours, the depression has intensified into Tropical Storm Carlotta. This system is currently supporting 45 mph winds and moving NW at around 9 mph. With conducive conditions of both warm waters and a low sheared atmosphere as well […]
While some glorious weather has invaded the Great Lakes and Midwest from Canada with dry air, low humidity and abundant sunshine, this allows the perfect combination of warm, very comfortable 70-degree days accompanied by cool, crisp nights in the 40s with even frost in the UP of Michigan. As we progress towards the later part of this week, this cool, Canadian […]
An astonishing 25 inches or 2 feet of rain has fallen across southern parts of Taiwan within just 24-hours while 3.5 feet has come down in 3 days, this has of course caused major flooding and sadly death with It’s all caused by a stationary boundary stretching from Southeast China eastwards across southern Taiwan and out into the western Pacific. This […]
Today will see plenty of active weather with Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley and Eastern Seaboard all seeing thunderstorms today. The same mesoscale convective complex which had a derecho on it’s leading edge as it swept southeastwards yesterday producing over 300 wind damage reports across the Mississippi Valley will gradually weaken as it takes aim at New […]
When I issued my summer forecast back on the 31 March I stated that if the drought continued, we could see one very warm and dry summer with a significant heat wave sometime in June, July or August with strong correlation between the dry soil and atmosphere. I also stated however that a lot depended upon how the spring […]



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