Yesterday we saw an area of disturbed weather to the west of Central America become a depression and now during the overnight hours, the depression has intensified into Tropical Storm Carlotta.
This system is currently supporting 45 mph winds and moving NW at around 9 mph. With conducive conditions of both warm waters and a low sheared atmosphere as well as high pressure over top, Carlotta is expected to further strengthen and become a hurricane sometime on Friday. It’s northwest movement would take this system into southwest Mexico and with it’s forward speed expect to maintain 10 mph, this means a landfall between Puerto Angel and Alcapulco is expected Friday night or early Saturday morning.
A 90 mph category 2 system is the likely intensity at landfall and once ashore, it’s deep tropical moisture will slam up against the lofty 10,000 foot mountains just inland, the orographic influence will enhance the already heavy rains piling ashore and so we can expect as much as 2 feet of rain to fall over the these mountains over a 24-48 hour period. This will of course cause flooding and potentially catastrophic landslides.
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