It’s been a pretty dry past few months for the UK and Ireland. I believe this can be directly attributed to the ongoing multi-year La Nina and so I thought I would take a quick and dirty glance back at past La Nina’s around and after a solar minimum.
Here are the La Nina years dating back to 1900.
It’s interesting to see 4 year blocks in which La Nina was present during and following a solar minimum (1998-2001) which comprised of blocking and drier than normal conditions for the UK.
Though just ahead of a solar maximum, 2016-17 saw an unusually dry period.
Interesting to see a 4-year La Nina stretch, albeit broken some (like now) at and immediately after the previous solar minimum of 2008. This was a period in which further dry spells occurred during a time of increased high latitude blocking.
Given the ‘quieter and drier’ conditions since June, I guess you could say La Nina is behaving similar like most years above by producing less wet weather and particularly so ‘after a solar min’, more blocking! There certainly appears to be fewer ‘deep and disruptive’ storms.
The dry summer/September is likely a lag response from this past winter and the weak to moderate La Nina we had back then.
Based on the above, I believe a ‘drier than normal’ winter or 1st half to winter is ahead and that’s not taking into account the disappearance of La Nina and current return as we head for winter 2021-22. Another La Nina could well bring a dry summer in 2022.
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