No we won’t see a hurricane but if current projections are in any way right, our weather could be reshaped by the northward presence of tropical energy.

Tropical systems can do one of two things or both for Europe, 1) make a direct impact bringing wind and rain from it’s former tropical self or 2) reshape or recast the atmosphere which could bring an end to an unsettled pattern and the beginning of one. Really, the tropics play a bigger role in our late summer, autumn pattern than most would think.

Before Helene comes up and confuses the models, Scotland and Northern Ireland shall continue to see Atlantic fronts and frequent windy conditions.

Interestingly the latest GFS operational takes the remnant low of Helene up and over the UK with rain and gales and I would expect unusually warm, humid air to be accompanied.

At this moment, what we do know is that the Atlantic regime continues with a northward push of a former tropical system early next week. Whether it goes west or over the UK/Ireland depends upon what system is over the N Atlantic and how strong the Europe high is. Either way it’s going to be interesting to see what potential after effects this northward push of tropical weather has on the overall pattern.

More on this in the coming days!