Well I’m sure many if not most thought the 2-3 weeks of dry pleasant weather we enjoyed in May and much of the first half of June was our summer as the Atlantic returned with unseasonably wet and windy conditions.

I have to admit, while next week’s potential ‘hot spell’ is well within the parameters of my June forecast, I did hold my breath once that shift kicked in as we’ve seen so many times before a sustained warm, dry pattern give way to cool and unsettled which then lingers. Take just last year as a great example. A decent April, May and beginning of June gave way to a disapointing July and August.

Though summer 2018 is still in it’s early stages and things can certainly still take a turn for the worse, I like what I’m seeing with a widespread dry upcoming 10-14 days and a sharp rise in temperature as the recent moistening of the ground should dry up quickly with a soil moisture deficit as well as higher evaporation rates under warmer temperatures. If the remainder of June is as warm and dry as I think, we’ll I’m going for that July heat wave which could rival 2006 and 2013.

The CFSv2 week 1 sees the high topple in over the UK off the Atlantic shutting down the rains more than lifting the temperature.

But into week 2 and as the high shifts southeast/east turning our winds SSE. The rains have shut down and the heat then cranks.

While I’ve outlined the longer range, how’s the next few days/nights shaping up. In short, drier and brighter. The fresher air, lighter wind and clearer skies mean colder nights.

Expect patchy frost in sheltered rural areas over the next few nights including the summer solstice.

So, next few days see cool nights, pleasant days with high positioned to the west.

By late weekend the same high is positioned over SE England or North Sea/English Channel and that means warmer nights, very warm days.

Once the high shifts ESE, temperatures will warm quite quickly and early to mid next week is looking very warm to hot pretty much UK-wide.

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: wxcharts.eu

Tags: UK Heat