SSWE has occurred, we now await the response… Worst of winter still ahead?

Written by Mark Vogan on February 15, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2017/18 with 0 Comments

According to ITV weather guru Liam Dutton, the UK experiences a prolonged cold period 66% of the time following a sudden stratospheric warming event. The last time it occurred was January 2013. So happens February was cold and March was the UK’s coldest in 50 years. The time before that? 2009 and our coldest December in 100 years.

The models don’t say if but when we’ll turn cold and likely for a few weeks not days like it’s been up until now. There’s still a good deal of uncertainty in the finer details but only now that the event has taken place at 10mb and the effects are sinking down through the atmosphere into the troposphere can the models begin to see more clearly.

Check out the explosion at 10mb over Greenland at the end of the loop.

Note the AO and NAO is ready to drop off the cliff in response.

Simon Cardy

Notice that while the event took place at 10mb between the 12-14 February but it’s 2-5 days later that the AO responds and 6-10 days before we see it’s true impacts including a well established Greenland block.

Looking good next week on according to the CFSv2.