Fast start’s to a hurricane season doesn’t in itself mean a busy season ahead, however a busy ‘early season’ where there’s been 5 systems as of mid July and more is on the table in the near term, this does raise some eyebrows. Why?

The reason is down to record warm waters in the MDR which stretches from Africa to Caribbean and Tropical Storm Bret which formed June 19 became the earliest TS to form in the MDR. Waters as warm as you’d typically see in early August around the Cape Verde island chain is one of TWO main reasons.

This busy early start goes deeper as you can have warm water but little African waves. The African wave train has been unusually active for so early and I believe a lot of that has to do with early heat over the Saharan which has helped fire up the AEJ (African easterly jet) early.

Based on past data, current sea and atmospheric conditions and forecast projections, this all suggests that the peak of the season (mid August through mid September) could been more active than normal.