By Jon Erdman
Published Nov 11 2016 07:05 PM EST
weather.com
Story Highlights
After a relatively wet October, parts of the Northwest are now setting all-time November record highs.
The Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies are also joining in, seeing highs surge into the 70s.
This warm pattern will persist until a pattern change next week.
Record warmth has engulfed a large swath of the northern tier of states in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, northern Plains, Upper Midwest and parts of Canada this week, shattering all-time records for the month of November, in some spots.
We’ve seen temperatures in the 70s penetrate as far north as Alberta, Canada, Upper Michigan, as well as the typically rainy and cloudy in November Pacific Northwest.7
A sampling of notable warmth from November 7-9, 2016.
Here are some of the record warm highlights so far this week:
All-time November record highs were set November 8 in both Bellingham, Washington (73 degrees), and Vancouver, British Columbia (about 67 degrees).
Seattle hit 70 degrees on November 8. The previous latest-in-season 70-degree day in the Emerald City was November 4, 1949 and 1980.
Roughly four dozen daily record highs were set Tuesday in western Canada alone, some topping the previous daily record by up to 9 degrees Celsius.
Bismarck, North Dakota, reached 75 degrees on November 9, their warmest so late in the season.
International Falls, Minnesota – the self-proclaimed “Icebox of the Nation” – set daily record highs 3 of 4 days from November 6-9, reaching 71 degrees on November 7, or roughly the average Labor Day high.
Five different locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula topped 70 degrees on November 10, including a high of 73 degrees in Stonington.
(MORE: Early November Snow Cover in the Lower 48 States Lowest in 13 Years)
It’s been a record warm start to November for dozens of cities, following one of the nation’s warmest Octobers on record. Understandably, some flowers are rather confused by this warmth
Warmth Will Persist Into Next Week
If you’re not ready for winter yet in the Rockies, Plains and Upper Midwest, you’re going to love this forecast.
After a brief November “reality check” Friday, above-average mid-November warmth will spread east from the northern Rockies and northern Plains into the upper Midwest.
Forecast Highs Tomorrow, Compared to Average
This means more 60s, even a few 70s, will persist in parts of the Plains and High Plains, and may occur, at times, in parts of the Upper Midwest into next week.
Some above-average warmth will also reach the East Coast by early next week following the brief cold incursion from Canada.
This warmth will begin to break down first in the West by the middle of next week, then the Plains and Midwest late next week as a strong frontal system sweeps cold air back into the region.
(MAPS: 10-Day National High/Low Forecasts)
Why So Warm?
Meteorologist Jonathan Belles wrote an earlier column explaining why the weather over the Lower 48 states has been so “quiet” recently. Essentially, the reason for the lull in stormy weather over the U.S. is also the reason for the recent record warmth. Namely, the North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska have been even stormier than their typical reputation.
The jet-stream pattern responsible for the recent record warmth in the northern tier of states and Canada.
Anchored in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, the jet stream’s southward plunge, or trough, forces a broad area of higher pressure aloft, known as a ridge, downstream over western Canada and the northern U.S.
Not only does that pump warmer air northward, but winds flowing down the slopes of the Rockies also further warm the air to the east of the mountains.
According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, among reporting stations with at least a 30-year period of record, there have been 39 daily record highs tied or broken for every record low over the past 30 days.
For monthly records, the ratio is an even more astounding 120 warm records for every cold record.
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