For the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, August 2016 and I suppose the summer of 2016 overall will stand out as warm and very humid. A lot of this can be attributed to drought, a strong Bermuda high and unusually warm waters helping drive rainforest level humidity all the way to New England. Two other areas which stand out as very warm this month is Western Colorado and Northern California.

On the opposite end of the temperature extreme, August will be remembered as a cool month for much of Montana and Idaho

What can we expect for September?

I believe during September the pattern shifts with the calendar as you’d expect. However, despite the ridge potentially being stronger in the Pacific Northwest and a sympathetic trough leaning through the Great Lakes and Northeast extending down into the Mid-Atlantic and even Southeast, the unusually warm waters lapping the Gulf and more so Atlantic shore, could lead to warmer than normal temperatures during autumn’s opening month, particularly at night.

While there has been remarkable rainfall in the South, I think precipitation rates will be less extreme overall but when tropical cyclones come along, we could still see significant flooding rains.

Here’s the CFSv2 for September 2016

Here’s the Canadian

Tropics beginning to stir

Thanks to lessening dust, shear and a peaking in SST’s, the tropics are waking up with 3 systems being watched as of this writing. We have a much more active African wave train and these waves are showing signs of life out in the MDR as there’s sinking sinking and more rising within a moistening environment. We currently have Tropical Storm Fiona with 99L to the SE while Tropical Depression 7 has formed near the Cape Verdes Islands.

As you can see from the visible satellite loop, Fiona is caught in a high shear zone at the moment.

While Fiona is unlikely to threaten, the models suggest 99L may be worth watching as well as TD 7 as Fiona may be creating a more favourable environment.

Exceptional tropical cyclone fuel within Gulf & Western Atlantic

Water temperatures off the US have been exceptional in 2016, epic fuel for tropical cyclones.

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Brian McNoldy ‏@BMcNoldy

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