We’re fast approaching the end of August and like June and July, it’s been a month of contrasts across Europe with record warmth in the far east while this could be one of the coolest on record for west-central.

Europe 2m temperature anomaly for August to date.

Overall, summer 2016’s been a mixed bag across Northern Ireland and Scotland with often wet, cool and unusually windy days interrupted by warm, sunny days in between. As for England and Wales it has been drier, sunnier and warmer with the exception of June thanks to more influence from of Azores high. However, if you take a look at the above map for August, temperatures appear to have been below normal throughout warmer England and Wales but the intrusions of cool have been influential.

How will August and Meteorological Summer end?

The pattern looks to remain the same. The current surge of summer once again is restricted to England and Wales and short lived.

Upcoming 5-day mean 500mb shows record heat is likely from France into the Low Countries and Germany as well as southern Scandinavia.

In the 6-10day the ridge is slightly weaker and further east which suggests the return of more unsettled, cool Atlantic weather for all of the UK.

Into the first week of September and low pressure is dominant.

7-day mean precipitation anomaly

We go from dry to wet and from warm to cool.

Disappointing September Ahead? 1st Since 2013

Given the re warming of waters surrounding and south of the UK, more favourable pattern for tropical development within the MDR (main development region) and recent trend in the models, I have turned on my original September ideas from not that long ago.

As we end summer and begin autumn, the tropics become more influential in the mid-latitude upper air pattern with energy lifting north and circling the mid-Atlantic ridge. The last two September’s have seen stronger than normal heights and quite weather as a result but every so many years, energy from the tropics enhances the trans Atlantic jet and drives unusually deep lows in across Ireland and the UK. This could be one of those years.

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Ashley Williams ‏@photosbyash

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