In contrast to June, July has been a damp affair across Northern Ireland and Scotland while dry in southern England and Wales. It was especially dry along the south-central Channel coast with barely a millimetre falling on the Isle of Wight. This was in stark contrast to the soggy June here. August opens opposite again with plenty of rain running along a west-east front attached to a low centred a few hundred of miles out in the Atlantic.

When looking at the July temp anomaly across Europe, though very warm in northern Scandinavia and NW Russia as well as central and western Iberia, it was a fairly average month and cooler than normal for western Scotland thanks to a wetter pattern here.

July 2m temperature anomaly

UK Specifics

June

From Met Office

During June 2016, East Anglia received more than twice the amount of average rainfall for June, when compared with the period between 1981 and 2010. Essex received 116.3mm of rain, nearly two-and-a-half the amount (243%) of the normal June amount. With 109mm of rain, Suffolk also recorded more than double the amount of rainfall (205%). Overall, Norfolk was also a very wet county, but the more detailed map shows that the north Norfolk coast received closer to the average amount of rainfall, while the Fenland districts recorded around double this amount.

July

From Met Office

The early July statistics (1st -28th) show a stark contrast in the UK between parts of the north and south as far as rainfall is concerned.

St Catherine’s Point, on the Isle of Wight, recorded only 1.4 mm of rain, currently the stations driest July on record. Meanwhile the month saw some very wet weather in the northwest, with Stornoway Airport recording 140.0 mm (87% above average) ranking it currently as its 3^rd wettest July on record (wetter years being 1939 with 143.7 mm and 1988 with 164.5 mm).

The overall pattern, model guidance and long term summer pattern thus far points to an August similar to July but with a stronger jet stream. This suggests deeper and therefore windier lows, especially in the NW UK while it should remain largely hot and dry in the favoured holiday destinations of the Canaries, Balearics Spanish Costas etc.

Today will be cloudy, cool and rather wet across southern Ireland and the UK while mostly dry and bright over N England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

A muggy, damp night across England and Wales, clearer and fresher in Scotland.

Tuesday sees that front lift north allowing southern parts to dry, brighten and warm while it turns cloudier, wetter and breezier into SW Scotland, warm in the sun ahead of the front.

Wednesday is windier and more unsettled over Scotland.

With low pressure north and high pressure south expect warm and muggy conditions across the South and cooler, fresher conditions across the North.

We catch a break Thursday, Friday possibly through Saturday but a substantial Atlantic low moves in late Saturday and through Sunday bringing potentially gale-force winds to exposed NW parts.

The GFS ensemble 5-day means shows the ridge building north from Spain up into the UK day 6-10.

Despite less trough and more ridge in the 6-10, the model doesn’t show a whole lot of warmth for the UK but I suspect there’s plenty over southern France, Iberia and the Med as well as the Canaries.

See this morning’s video.

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