There is a very distinct north-south contrast in temperature over Europe. In between, very heavy, flooding rains through northern France through Germany. To the north it’s turning considerably colder, to the south much milder.

The GFS and ECMWF has been consistent at laying down the snows over many inland parts of the UK, today and through the weekend. A widespread snow event isn’t likely but there may be many places at all levels who may at least see snow falling and for some, accumulation is possible.

The arctic air mass now diving south today through tomorrow should be cold enough to support LOW LEVEL snow. Where exactly, well that remains to be seen.

GFS snow chart through 72 hours.

The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for snow tonight into Saturday morning.

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Even parts of France and Spain could see surprisingly low elevation snow as well as into Belgium, Netherlands eastwards to Germany but the low just east of the UK and 1045 north-south oriented high south of Greenland/west of Ireland, means our air is being drawn from well into the arctic and therefore snow covering the ground briefly in suburban Glasgow, Edinburgh, Manchester can’t be ruled out with significant accumulation in parts of the Highlands where severe gales will generate blizzard conditions tonight.

The arctic air is coming in waves. One rain band is currently pushing south into southern Scotland, introducing colder air but another boundary drops south later this evening and the true cold is behind this. That front will be accompanied by strong winds straight out of the north so expect frost and ice tonight and by dawn Saturday.

The model also has the first -10C at 850mb (5,000ft) showing up over Scotland Saturday. This will bring our first widespread frost and lows of 0 to -3, locally -6 or -7C in the Highland Glens and with those values to open Saturday, many may struggle to get much above 2 or 3 with Highland Glens remaining below freezing throughout the day.

GFS surface for early Saturday.

850mb temps at 06z Saturday.

Today is considerably colder across Scotland but still relatively mild across much central and southern of England and Wales. However that boundary with a lot of wind and showers on it drives our first real taste of winter south tonight. Winds will howl for a time as the cold front sweeps through. Behind it, showers will quickly turn to snow.

GFS has a strong northerly gale developing later today. With gusts of 60-70 mph possible, I wouldn’t fancy crossing the North Channel, Irish Sea or North Sea tonight into early tomorrow morning! The Cairngorms are likely to see 100 mph gusts and severe wind chill within blizzard conditions. Many parts of the UK as well as seeing snow falling at least, will also see 20-40, locally 20 or 60 mph gusts tonight.

The front diving south over Scotland opens the door to the arctic but another front further south marks the bigger thermal gradient across Europe with a 160+ knot westerly jet roaring in between. Paris should top 16C today while London is 10C. These two cities are separated by the southerly boundary where the jet stream is and by tomorrow, that boundary drops south and 10C is knocked off the Paris value.

2m temp anomaly for this afternoon. Note warmth still over much of France

Saturday afternoon.

Cold and turning increasingly wintry today.

A colder day tomorrow.

This blast of cold as I say is short lived because as early as Monday, following a widespread frost, we begin to pull our air in once again from the Atlantic. Next week will be another week dominated by systems sweeping in bringing a spell of heavy rain and strong winds. Though less cold than the upcoming weekend, it won’t turn as mild as it has done and that’s because we’re drawing in a NORTHWEST flow rather than southwest. Less cold but nearer average for late November.

Next weekend sees another system push in and behind it, there appears to be some pretty chilly polar-maritime air and so further HILL snow is possible and temps slightly below average.

Looks like the +NAO, Atlantic flow wins out to end November, begin December.

See this morning’s video for today’s discussion.

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Tags: cold blast, Europe cold blast, uk cold, UK cold snap, UK Snow