Before you read, I would encourage some caution because this is not me forecasting a late November cold outbreak but more showing you some optimistic model output. More what the atmosphere may be showing and where it may want to head ‘periodically’ through the upcoming winter season. What’s quite interesting is the models didn’t really show this last year nor the year before and the NAO index in particular doesn’t have the same impact till mid and late season. So, like I say, read this as ‘thoughts rather than forecast’.

Remember I showed in recent days about the GFS ensemble displacing the polar vortex off the pole and towards eastern Siberia.

Note the belt of warming underneath between Canada and Scandinavia.

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The last two years has seen warmest water compared to normal over the N Pacific but this is weaker with counteraction with the stronger El Nino (compared to last year). With slightly less heat content in N Pacific, warmest waters appear to be east of Greenland and coupled with a weaker solar cycle, I see WHY the polar vortex would shift over towards Asia as anticipated by the models. IT’S VERY EARLY DAYS HOWEVER and this feedback usually doesn’t kick in until later December, January.

Look at the difference between last December below and this November above…

The evidence is now showing strong with the likely tanking of the NAO mid month on.

Check out the complete flip in height field over the Davis Straits between the 0-5 day and 10-15 day!

GFS ensemble.

Europe view.

EPS control is very much on the same page.

Europe view.

For the past 2 years, due to the solar max and warm north Pacific, cool north Atlantic, the Aleutian low has been weak and the Icelandic low strong hence blocking in the N Pacific but none in the North Atlantic and the result has been a warm, highly maritime influenced winter for Europe. This upcoming winter may see the opposite with winter more focused on Europe than North America.

It’s not so much what this pattern could do but more what it’s showing us and the potential for later.

See this morning’s video for a look at the nearer term (this week).

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Tags: AO, arctic oscillation, europe snow, europe winter, nao, North Atlantoc Oscillation, polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warming event, UK Snow, uk winter